Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts - 11/17/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
Jacksonville Jaguars (4-5) at Indianapolis Colts (5-4)
NFL Football: Sunday, November 17, 2019 at 1:00 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)
The Line: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 -- Over/Under: 43.5
TV: DAZN, CBS
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Indianapolis Colts meet in a week 11 AFC South division matchup from Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The Jacksonville Jaguars come into this game rested after their bye week and went out on a sour note, falling below .500 to 4-5 with a 26-3 loss to Houston last time out. Gardner Minshew II leads Jacksonville with 2,285 passing yards, 13 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 61.2% passing but it was announced that Minshew would give way to the returning Nick Foles for this game. Leonard Fournette leads the Jaguars with 831 rushing yards while DJ Chark Jr. has 43 catches for 692 yards and 6 touchdowns to lead the Jags’ receiving group. Chris Conley has 461 receiving yards and Dede Westbrook also has 32 catches for 383 yards this season. Defensively, Myles Jack leads the Jaguars with 50 total tackles while Ronnie Harrison is right behind in 2nd with 48 total tackles and Josh Allen leads Jacksonville with 7 sacks this season. Calais Campbell has 5.5 sacks and 9.5 tackles for loss this season. As a team, Indianapolis is averaging 377.1 yards of total offense and 19.6 points per game while allowing 350 yards of total defense and 21 points per game against this season.
The Indianapolis Colts will look to rebound after back-to-back losses following a 16-12 loss to the Miami Dolphins last time out. Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 1,649 yards, 14 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 64.8% passing, but it’s unknown if Brissett will suit up for this game due to a sprained MCL, possibly leaving QB duties up to Brian Hoyer. Marlon Mack has rushed for 753 rushing yards and 3 TDs while T.Y Hilton has a team-high 360 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Zach Pascal has 347 receiving yards with 4 TDs and Eric Ebron has 304 receiving yards and 3 TDs while Jack Doyle and Nyheim Hines each have 200+ receiving yards this season. Defensively, Darius Leonard leads the Colts with 60 total tackles while Anthony Walker is 2nd with 57 total tackles and Justin Houston has a team-high 7 sacks this season. As a team, Indianapolis is averaging 338.8 yards of total offense and 21.6 points per game while allowing 327.6 yards of total defense and 21.4 points per game against this season.
Jacksonville is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 division games. Indianapolis is 0-6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against a team with a losing record and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 division games while the under is 13-3 in their last 16 games following a loss. Jacksonville is 7-0-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings between these two teams and 3-0-1 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Indianapolis. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams and 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Indianapolis.
I’m not trying to get behind either of these teams right now, as I don’t know what to expect from Foles in his first game since opening week and Minshew II looked bad before the bye week. As far as the Colts go, Brissett’s injury leaves me hanging and I’m not a Brian Hoyer guy. Instead, I’m going to side with the under. I think both teams come into this game taking somewhat of a cautious approach, and with so much at stake in the division race, I think this ends up being a hard-hitting, grind it out type of game, so I’ll side with the under here.