Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 10/17/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs - 10/17/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) at Denver Broncos (2-4)

NFL Football: Thursday, October 17, 2019 at 8:20 pm (Broncos Stadium at Mile High)

The Line: Denver Broncos +3.5 -- Over/Under: 49

TV: FOX, NFL

The Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos meet Thursday in NFL action at Empower Field at Mile High.

The Kansas City Chiefs could use a victory here to rebound from back-to-back tough losses. The Kansas City Chiefs have won eight of their last 11 road games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 2,104 yards, 14 touchdowns and one interception. Mahomes has two or more touchdown passes in 15 of his last 17 games. Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins have combined for 862 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Mecole Hardman has 16 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 82.7 yards per contest, and LeSean McCoy leads the way with 258 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 24 points and 406.2 yards per game. Damien Wilson leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 40 tackles, Emmanuel Ogbah has 2.5 sacks and Charvarius Ward has two interceptions.

The Denver Broncos look for a third straight win to save their season and rebound from a 2-4 hole. The Denver Broncos have lost four of their last five home games. Joe Flacco is completing 66.3 percent of his passes for 1,435 yards, six touchdowns and five interceptions. Flacco has one or less touchdown passes in six of his last seven games. Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders have combined for 784 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Noah Fant has 14 receptions. The Denver Broncos ground game is averaging 116 yards per contest, and Phillip Lindsay leads the way with 397 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Denver is allowing 17.7 points and 307.8 yards per game. Justin Simmons leads the Denver Broncos with 30 tackles, DeMarcus Walker has three sacks and Alexander Johnson has one interception.

The Chiefs are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC West, 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games and 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS loss. The Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October, 10-2 ATS in their last 12 Thursday games and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Denver and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The under is 19-6-1 in Broncos last 26 games overall. The over is 10-4 in Chiefs last 14 games overall.

The Kansas City Chiefs have split their last 12 games ATS as a road favorite. The Denver Broncos have covered 10 of their last 15 games as a home underdog. The Broncos have lost seven straight to the Chiefs, but four of the last six meetings have been decided by seven or less points. The Broncos have finally figured out how to turn these close games into victories and playing in Denver is never easy for an opponent. These AFC West games are usually weird, competitive and come down to the wire, regardless of the two teams playing, and you should expect much of the same with both clubs playing o short rest and the trend of the underdogs covering Thursday night. It's only a matter of time before the Kansas City Chiefs bounce back in a big way, but I'm still leaning toward the Broncos and the free points at home.

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Randy’s Pick Denver Broncos +3.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.