Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts - 10/6/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts - 10/6/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 8:20 pm (Arrowhead Stadium)

The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 -- Over/Under: 56.5

TV: DAZN, NBC

The Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in week 5’s edition of Sunday Night Football from Arrowhead Stadium in NFL action.

The Indianapolis Colts will look to get back above .500 after falling to 2-2 on the year with a 31-24 loss to Oakland last time out. Jacoby Brissett has thrown for 911 yards, 10 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 65.2% passing while Marlon Mack leads the Colts in rushing with 338 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. T.Y. Hilton leads Indy’s receiving corps with 20 catches on 25 targets for 195 yards and 4 touchdowns. Eric Ebron has 128 receiving yards and a pair of scores while Zach Pascal and Jack Doyle each have 100+ receiving yards for the Colts this season. Defensively, Anthony Walker leads the Colts with 33 total tackles including 24 solo tackles, leading the team in that department as well while Denico Autry has a team-high 2.5 sacks this season. As a team, Indianapolis is averaging 347.2 yards of total offense and 23.5 points per game while allowing 363 yards of total defense and 25.5 points per game against this season.

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to remain unbeaten, sitting at 4-0 after rallying for a 34-30 win over Detroit in their last outing. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,510 yards and 10 touchdowns on 67.9% passing while LeSean McCoy leads KC in rushing with 214 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. Travis Kelce leads KC’s receiving corps with 369 receiving yards and 24 receptions while Sammy Watkins is right behind with 23 grabs for 365 yards and 3 TDs. Demarcus Robinson has 250 receiving yards and 3 TDs of his own while Mecole Hardman has 167 yards and 2 scores. Kendall Fuller leads the Chiefs’ defense with 29 total tackles including 22 solo tackles while Emmanuel Ogbah has 2.5 sacks this season and Chris Jones is right behind with a pair of sacks on the year. As a team, Kansas City is averaging the 2nd-most total yards per game, racking up 474.8 yards per game as well as the most passing yards per game with 373 YPG and the 2nd-highest scoring offense with 33.8 points per game. On defense, Kansas City is allowing 408.5 yards of total defense and 23.5 points per game against this season.

Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a winning record and 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 road games while the under is 11-3 in their last 14 games following a loss. Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC while the over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 games against the AFC. Indianapolis is 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings between these two teams and 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.

Kansas City rallied to complete the comeback against the Lions which is huge, but the issue I have is that KC still didn’t cover that game. On the flipside, the Colts looked horrible for stretches against a below average Raiders team, but the Colts made a game of it late it’s just that Indy dug themselves in too deep of a hole to come out of early on. KC’s run is impressive considering 3 of the first 4 games were on the road and I think the Chiefs settle in and win this game. However, I think the Colts will be up for this one, a primetime game at Arrowhead, and the Colts have producing well enough on offense to keep up with KC a bit, so I’ll take the Colts and the points as I see Indy keeping this one within single digits.

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Chris’s Pick Indianapolis +10.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.