Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons - 10/6/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Houston Texans vs. Atlanta Falcons - 10/6/19 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Atlanta Falcons (1-3) at Houston Texans (2-2)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 6, 2019 at 1:00 pm (NRG Stadium)

The Line: Houston Texans -5 -- Over/Under: 49

TV: FOX

The Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans meet Sunday in NFL action at NRG Stadium.

The Atlanta Falcons need a win here to save their season and rebound from a 1-3 record. The Atlanta Falcons have lost five of their last seven road games. Matt Ryan is completing 70.5 percent of his passes for 1,325 yards, eight touchdowns and six interceptions. Ryan has two or more touchdown passes in nine of his last 13 games. Julio Jones and Austin Hooper have combined for 624 receiving yards and six touchdowns while Mohamed Sanu has 24 receptions. The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 70.3 yards per contest, and Devonta Freeman leads the way with 157 yards on 47 carries. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 24.8 points and 324.8 yards per game. De’Vondre Campbell leads the Atlanta Falcons with 38 tackles, Grady Jarrett has two sacks and Desmond Trufant has two interceptions.

The Houston Texans need a big home victory to get a game above a .500 record. The Houston Texans have won seven of their last nine home games. Deshaun Watson is completing 65.1 percent of his passes for 938 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. Watson has two or more touchdown passes in seven of his last 13 games. DeAndre Hopkins and Kenny Stills have combined for 447 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Will Fuller V has 14 receptions. The Houston Texans ground game is averaging 120.3 yards per contest, and Carlos Hyde leads the way with 250 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Houston is allowing 19.5 points and 363.5 yards per game. Zach Cunningham leads the Houston Texans with 35 tackles, Whitney Mercilus has five sacks and Johnathan Joseph has six pass deflections.

The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games, 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games in October and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-13 ATS in their last 14 games in Week 5 and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings. The under is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games overall. The under is 5-2 in Falcons last 7 games following a ATS loss.

The Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover eight of their last 10 road games. The Houston Texans have split their last eight games ATS as a home favorite. I looked at the Falcons as Super Bowl contenders entering the season, and now I'm looking at them scratching my head. I'm not sure why the Falcons are playing so bad, but it hasn't been pretty. The Texans just lost at home as 5.5-point favorites and have serious issues protecting the quarterback. As bad as the Falcons have looked, this may be the right spot to back them, just when bettors and oddsmakers start to jump off the ship. In a must-win game to save their season, this could very well be the game the Falcons put everything together and grind out a tough victory. Give me the points.

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Randy’s Pick Atlanta Falcons +5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Pick Dawgz site consensus.