| MATCHUP | San Antonio Spurs | Oklahoma City Thunder |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 62-20 | 64-18 |
| Spread | +6.5 -102 | -6.5 -118 |
| Moneyline | +205 | -250 |
| Total | Over 220.5 (-110) | Under 220.5 (-110) |
| Where | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, OK | |
| When | Monday, May 18, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | NBC | |
The San Antonio Spurs and the Oklahoma City Thunder duke it out in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals at the Paycom Center on Monday night. Here’s a San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a San Antonio Spurs vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The San Antonio Spurs enter this matchup with plenty of confidence, as they cruised past the Trail Blazers in the First Round before outlasting the Timberwolves in a six-game series in the Conference Semifinals. Victor Wembanyama has been sensational for the Spurs during these playoffs with averages of 20.3 points, 10.7 rebounds and 4.1 blocks per game; Stephon Castle is averaging 19.9 points, 4.9 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game; De’Aaron Fox is averaging 18.8 points and 5.8 assists per game, while Dylan Harper is averaging 13.7 points, 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists per game.
As a team, the Spurs are scoring 116.9 points per game while shooting 49.0 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from the 3-point line. The Spurs enter this matchup as the underdogs, but they will be quietly confident of their chances as they are the only team in the league to beat the Thunder four times out of five meetings during the regular season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder head into this contest as the favorites, which isn’t surprising given that they are the defending champions with the best record in the regular season. The Thunder have maintained their elite level of defense all season and they have yet to be truly challenged in these playoffs after sweeping the Suns and the Lakers to book their tickets to the Western Conference Finals.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been rock solid for the Thunder so far in these playoffs as he is averaging 29.1 points and 7.1 assists per game; Jalen Williams has played just two games with averages of 20.5 points and 5.0 assists per game; Chet Holmgren is averaging 18.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, while Ajay Mitchell has been a real gem for the Thunder as he is averaging 18.8 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.9 assists per game. As a team, the Thunder are scoring 121.3 points per game while shooting 51.0 percent from the field and 38.4 percent from the 3-point line.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 12 home games following a win.
- The Spurs have lost each of their seven previous night games at Paycom Center following a road win.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last seven Western Conference Finals games at Paycom Center following a win.
- The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games at Paycom Center following a road win.
Why the San Antonio Spurs will win
- The Spurs have won four of their last five games as underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Thunder have lost three of their last four night games against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
- The Spurs have covered the spread in five of their last six games as underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
Total Points: Facts
- Each of the Spurs’ last seven games as road underdogs has gone UNDER the total points line.
- Eight of the Thunder’s last nine night games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Chet Holmgren ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for blocks per game (1.9) this season.
- Ajay Mitchell is one of only 13 players to have made 8+ field goals without a miss in a game this season.
San Antonio Spurs Player Facts
- Julian Champagnie is one of only 11 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.
- Keldon Johnson is one of only 11 qualified Guards in the league shooting at least 50% from the field this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (74.0%).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throws made per game this season (16.2).
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
- The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).
San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Spurs could be shorthanded for the series opener as they are still keeping an eye on De’Aaron Fox and Luke Kornet, who are both questionable, while the Thunder have ruled out Thomas Sorber again. The Spurs looked incredible in their last two games, which resulted in blowout wins over the Timberwolves, but the Thunder have been absolutely rock solid from the very start and have yet to drop a game in these playoffs.
The Spurs had plenty of success against the Thunder during the regular season as they were able to limit their turnovers, which made it much harder for the Thunder to go on the big runs to take the game away. You can make an argument for either side in this one, but the line just seems a tad too high, so I will happily lean toward the Spurs to pull off the upset or at least take this one down to the wire on the road.