| MATCHUP | Oklahoma City Thunder | Dallas Mavericks |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 46-15 | 21-38 |
| Spread | -16.5 -105 | +16.5 -115 |
| Moneyline | -1050 | +675 |
| Total | Over 233.5 (-115) | Under 233.5 (-105) |
| Where | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX | |
| When | Sunday, March 1, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EST | |
| TV | KFAA-TV | |
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks meet Sunday in NBA action at the American Airlines Center. Here’s an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks prediction. This article will include an Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Nuggets, lost to the Pistons and then play the Bulls next. The Thunder have won 6 of their last 8 games.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 119.4 points on 48.4 percent shooting and allowing 108 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 31.8 points and 6.4 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 17.5 points and 4.7 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Ajay Mitchell is grabbing 3.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 36.5 percent from beyond the arc and 82.1 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 36.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.7 rebounds per game.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks lost to the Kings and Grizzlies, and they play the Hornets next. The Mavs have lost 12 of their last 14 games.
The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 114.4 points on 47.3 percent shooting and allowing 117.7 points on 46.8 percent shooting. Cooper Flagg is averaging 20.4 points and 4.1 assists, while Naji Marshall is averaging 15.2 points and 4.9 rebounds. PJ Washington is the third double-digit scorer, and Max Christie is grabbing 3.4 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 34.2 percent from beyond the arc and 74.5 percent from the free-throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 34.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.7 rebounds per game.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won six of their last seven games as home underdogs after losing as favorites.
- The Thunder have lost each of their three previous games at the American Airlines Center after coming off overtime.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games at the American Airlines Center against Mavericks teams that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games as home underdogs after losing as favorites.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 28 night games against Western Conference opponents that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four home games.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last four road games.
Total Points: Facts
- Each of the Thunder’s last seven games against Western Conference opponents has gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Mavericks’ last six Sunday games has gone OVER the total points line.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Cason Wallace ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for steals per game (2.0) this season.
- Isaiah Joe ranks 5th amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.3) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mavericks have used 33 different starting fives this season—equal to the most in the league.
- The Mavericks rank 29th in the league for free throw percentage this season (74.0%).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (74.7%).
- The Thunder have suffered the largest comeback loss when leading through Q1 this season—led by 20 points @ Trail Blazers on November 5.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
The Mavericks will be without Kyrie Irving, PJ Washington, Cooper Flagg, and Dereck Lively II. Caleb Martin and Naji Marshall are questionable.
The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Branden Carlson, Jalen Williams, and Ajay Mitchell.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
The Thunder aren’t the cover machines they’ve been in the past, but they consistently beat up on teams they’re supposed to beat up on. The Mavs are banged up and are piling up ugly losses along the way. Back in December, the Thunder beat the Mavericks by 21 points. The Mavs have more injuries than they did a couple of months ago. The only way OKC doesn’t win this game in crime-scene fashion is if the motivation just isn’t there. I’m still laying the points with the Thunder.