Oklahoma City (3-0) vs Dallas (1-2)
October 27, 2025 at 08:30 PM EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Dallas +7.5 — Over/Under: +226.5
The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks meet Monday in NBA action at the American Airlines Center. Here’s a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction. This article will include a Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder beat the Hawks and Pacers, and then play the Kings next. The Thunder look for back-to-back 4-0 starts to the NBA season.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 128 points on 45.2 percent shooting and allowing 120 points on 43.2 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 40 points and 5 assists, while Chet Holmgren is averaging 24.7 points and 10 rebounds. Ajay Mitchell is the third double-digit scorer and Aaron Wiggins is grabbing 5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 29.8 percent from beyond the arc and 86.3 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 33.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 49.3 rebounds per game.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks lost to the Wizards, beat the Raptors, and they play the Pacers next. The Mavs have lost 7 of their last 10 games.
The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 99.5 points on 40.4 percent shooting and allowing 121 points on 51.4 percent shooting. Anthony Davis is averaging 24.5 points and 2.5 assists, while PJ Washington is averaging 17.5 points and 7 rebounds. Cooper Flagg is the third double-digit scorer, and Klay Thompson is grabbing 3 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 34.5 percent from beyond the arc and 79.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 41.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42.5 rebounds per game.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The underdogs have won five of the Mavericks’ last six games.
- The Thunder have lost five of their last seven games as road favorites following a win.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in six of the last seven games between the Thunder and Mavericks.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 25 night games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last eight night games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last nine night games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven night games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
- Twelve of the Mavericks’ last 13 night games on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the Thunder’s last eight Monday games as favorites have gone OVER the total points line.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Mavericks rank 29th in the league for opponent field goals made per game this season (46.7).
- The Mavericks rank 29th in the league for Q2 points per game this season (23.7).
- The Thunder rank 1st in the league for turnover percentage this season (10.5%).
- The Thunder rank 29th in the league for opponent rebounds per game this season (51.0).
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Injury Report
The Mavericks will be without Kyrie Irving, Brandon Williams, and Dante Exum. Daniel Gafford is doubtful with an ankle injury.
The Thunder will be without Thomas Sorber, Nikola Topic, Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe, and Kenrich Williams. Chet Holmgren is questionable with a back injury.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction
The Mavericks finally got in the win column, but beating up on the Raptors doesn’t move the needle much. The Mavericks have underachieved up to this point and the fan base is quick to turn the arena into a toxic environment. The Thunder aren’t covering numbers like they have in the past, and the injury report is a CVS receipt. Still, this has more to do with the lack of trust in the Mavs, and playing on the end of a back-to-back doesn’t help. I’m going to lay the points with OKC.