| MATCHUP | Minnesota Timberwolves | San Antonio Spurs |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 49-33 | 62-20 |
| Spread | +10.5 -115 | -10.5 -105 |
| Moneyline | +320 | -410 |
| Total | Over 218.5 (-108) | Under 218.5 (-112) |
| Where | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX | |
| When | Tuesday, May 12, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:00 PM EDT | |
| TV | NBC | |
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves look for back-to-back wins to take a 3-2 series lead. The Timberwolves have won 9 of their last 14 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are averaging 109.3 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 110.4 points on 45 percent shooting. Anthony Edwards is averaging 21.5 points and 6.6 rebounds, while Julius Randle is averaging 17.2 points and 3.2 assists. Jaden McDaniels is the third double-digit scorer, and Ayo Dosunmu is grabbing 3.3 rebounds. The Minnesota Timberwolves are shooting 34.2 percent from beyond the arc and 73.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Minnesota Timberwolves are allowing 31.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.5 rebounds per game.
San Antonio Spurs Betting Preview
The San Antonio Spurs look for their fourth home playoff win to take a 3-2 series lead. The Spurs have won 41 of their last 52 games.
The San Antonio Spurs are averaging 113.4 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 102.3 points on 41.1 percent shooting. Victor Wembanyama is averaging 19.6 points and 10.5 rebounds, while Stephon Castle is averaging 18.9 points and 6.1 assists. De’Aaron Fox is the third double-digit scorer, and Dylan Harper is dishing 2.2 assists. The San Antonio Spurs are shooting 37.6 percent from beyond the arc and 77.2 percent from the free throw line. The San Antonio Spurs are allowing 32.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.9 rebounds per game.
Why the San Antonio Spurs will win
- The Spurs have won each of their last nine games after losing as favorites.
- The Timberwolves have lost 13 of their last 15 games at Frost Bank Center against Spurs teams that held a winning record.
- The Spurs have covered the spread in each of their last 10 games as favorites following a loss.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five road games following a win.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Spurs have lost four of their last six Western Conference Semifinals games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Timberwolves have won eight of their last 10 games against Southwest Division opponents.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in seven of their last nine games as underdogs against the Spurs.
- The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four home games against Timberwolves teams that held a winning record.
Total Points Facts
- Five of the Timberwolves’ last six games against Southwest Division opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
- Four of the last five games between the Timberwolves and Spurs have gone OVER the total points line.
San Antonio Spurs Player Facts
- Stephon Castle is one of only five players to have recorded a 40+ point triple-double this season.
- Julian Champagnie is one of only 11 players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Anthony Edwards ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for points per game (28.8) this season.
- Jaden McDaniels is one of only five qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 three, 1.0 steal, and 1.0 block this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Spurs rank 1st in the league for Q1 win percentage this season (69.5%).
- The Spurs rank 2nd in the league for point differential per game this season (+8.3).
- The Timberwolves have allowed the most games with 40+ points (11) this season.
- The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for blocks per game this season (5.8).
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Injury Report
De’Aaron Fox is questionable for the Spurs due to ankle soreness.
The Timberwolves will be without Donte DiVincenzo due to an Achilles tear.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs San Antonio Spurs Prediction
The Spurs are the better healthier team and should be favored at home. The problem is the Timberwolves have found their footing a bit in this series and have to view this as a chance to steal their series. Ant-Man looks like he’s becoming himself again, the defense is getting after it, and I do believe that the Wemby incident adds a little spiciness to this series. We could see a more physical game that’s low scoring and comes down to the wire. The Timberwolves have covered 12 of their last 16 games as a double-digit underdog. I’ve been on the Spurs a lot over the months and they’re still my pick to win it all. However, this line is thick. I see a competitive game. Give me the points.