Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)
Game Info: Tuesday, May 20, 2025 at 8:30 pm (Paycom Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5 — Over/Under: 215.5
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been flying under the radar as they weren’t the hottest team heading into the postseason, but they have lost just two games on their way to a Conference Finals berth. They beat the Lakers in the first round and the Warriors in the second round. Anthony Edwards has been leading the team with averages of 26.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Julius Randle is averaging 23.9 points, 5.9 rebounds, and 5.9 assists per game. Jaden McDaniels is averaging 15.4 points, while Naz Reid has provided the spark off the bench with averages of 11.0 points and 3.6 rebounds per game. As a team, the Timberwolves have scored 108.2 points per game while shooting 46.5 percent from the field and 35.0 percent from the 3-point line.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder came into the playoffs as the favorite in the Western Conference. They swept the Grizzlies with ease in the first round, but are coming into this one fresh off a 125-93 Game 7 win over the Nuggets on Sunday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 35 points on 12 of 19 shooting, Jalen Williams broke out of his shooting slump to contribute 24 points with seven assists while Chet Holmgren tallied 13 points with 11 rebounds. As a team, the Thunder shot 49 percent from the field and 12 of 39 from the 3-point line as they took control of the contest with a 39-20 second quarter. Before they poured in another 65 points in the second half to make it a complete blowout win at home to book their tickets to the Conference Finals.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last seven games at Paycom Center when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The Timberwolves have lost five of their last six Western Conference Finals games.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last five games as home favorites following a home win.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five Western Conference Finals games.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won seven of their last eight playoff games as road underdogs against Western Conference opponents following a win.
- The Thunder have lost nine of their last 10 games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Timberwolves.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in 14 of their last 15 games as road underdogs when playing with a rest advantage.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites following a win.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
- Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Mike Conley ranks 5th amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (4.3) this season.
- Jaden McDaniels rank T8th in the league for total steals + blocks (184) this season.
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Timberwolves have been solid for bettors during these playoffs with a 7-3 ATS record, while the Thunder are only 4-7 ATS so far in these playoffs. These teams met four times in the regular season with the series tied at 2-2 so all signs point to a close contest here with the Thunder opening as favorites due to home-court advantage. Gilgeous-Alexander is going to have to carry the heavy burden on offense again if the supporting cast goes cold like they did against the Nuggets. However, the Thunder has built their success on their league-best defense, which was key to their 68-win season.
The Timberwolves will be relying on Edwards to take his game to another level on the offensive end. Rudy Gobert has been anchoring their defense while Julius Randle has been steady as he has averaged 23.9 points so far during these playoffs. The Timberwolves have the advantage of extra rest, but the extra layoff has hurt teams in these playoffs, so I will back the Thunder to strike first at home.