| MATCHUP | Miami Heat | Atlanta Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 29-27 | 27-30 |
| Spread | -3.5 -108 | +3.5 -112 |
| Moneyline | -142 | +120 |
| Total | Over 243.5 (-112) | Under 243.5 (-108) |
| Where | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA | |
| When | Friday, February 20, 2026 | |
| Time | 07:30 PM EST | |
| TV | FanDuel SN Sun | |
The Atlanta Hawks play host to the Miami Heat at the State Farm Arena on Friday night. Here’s a Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction. This article will include a Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Pick.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat have been in decent shape as they’ve split their last 12 games overall and they will be hoping to build some momentum after blowing past the Pelicans in a 123-111 road win last Wednesday. Bam Adebayo led the team with 27 points, 14 rebounds and four blocks, Jaime Jacquez Jr added 23 points with eight rebounds and four assists off the bench, while Kel’el Ware chipped in with 16 points and 12 rebounds.
As a team, the Heat shot just 41 percent from the field and 14 of 47 from the 3-point line as they fought hard to take a narrow lead into halftime, before they took control of the contest with a pivotal 23-13 run in the third quarter to start to pull away.
Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Hawks haven’t been playing at their best as they’ve lost five of their last eight games overall, but they were able to arrest a three-game slide with a 117-107 road win over the 76ers last night. Jalen Johnson led the team with 32 points, 10 rebounds and five assists, CJ McCollum added 23 points and five assists off the bench while Dyson Daniels chipped in with 15 points and seven rebounds.
As a team, the Hawks shot 43 percent from the field and 10 of 32 from the 3-point line as they got off to a solid start and poured in 32 points in the second quarter to jump out in front, but this game was a battle till the final buzzer as the Hawks saw their 14-point lead get cut to just four points before they nailed free throws down the stretch to escape with the much needed win.
Why the Atlanta Hawks will win
- The Heat have lost six of their last seven games as favorites following a win.
- The Hawks have won eight of their last nine games against Southeast Division opponents that held a winning record.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a win.
- The Hawks have covered the spread in each of their last five games as home underdogs when playing with a rest disadvantage.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Hawks have lost nine of their last 10 games when playing with a rest disadvantage against the Heat.
- The Heat have won seven of their last eight road games against teams that held a losing record.
- The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Heat’s last 11 games.
- The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in 14 of their last 16 home games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Heat’s last six road games against Eastern Conference opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Each of the Hawks’ last four games at State Farm Arena following a road win have gone UNDER the total points line.
Atlanta Hawks Player Facts
- Dyson Daniels ranks 5th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.
- C.J. McCollum is one of only nine players in the league to have made 10+ threes in a game this season.
Miami Heat Player Facts
- Andrew Wiggins rank 24th amongst qualified players for steals + blocks per game (2.2) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- Ten different Hawks players have scored 25+ points in a game this season – equal-most in the league.
- The Hawks rank 30th in the league for rebound percentage this season (47.5%).
- The Heat rank 1st in the league for Q1 points per game this season (31.5).
- The Heat rank 1st in the league for H1 points per game this season (61.8).
Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction
The Heat are still keeping an eye on Keshad Johnson and Norman Powell, who are both questionable, while Tyler Herro is expected to make his return, while the Hawks have ruled out Jonathan Kuminga again. These teams last met on Feb 3 and it was the Hawks who rolled to a 127-115 road win thanks to a big triple-double from Jalen Johnson.
Both teams are coming into this game in similar form, but the Hawks are playing their second game of a back-to-back set, while the Heat should be well-rested as they haven’t played since the All-Star break. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if the Heat won this one comfortably, but the Hawks looked great in last night’s win, and I think they can keep it going with a minor upset in this spot.