Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) vs Denver Nuggets (50-32)
Game Info: Monday, May 5, 2025 at 9:30 pm (Paycom Center)
The Line: Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -9.5 — Over/Under: 225
The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Monday in the NBA playoffs Game 1 at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Pick.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets just beat the Clippers in seven games and are in the second round for a third straight season. The Nuggets have split their last 10 road games. The Nuggets have won six of their last seven game 1s.
The Denver Nuggets are averaging 107.7 points on 48.2 percent shooting and allowing 108.3 points on 48.6 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 24 points and 11.6 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 22.9 points and 5.3 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Russell Westbrook is grabbing 4.8 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38.9 percent from beyond the arc and 71.7 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 36.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.3 rebounds per game.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder swept the Grizzlies and will play for the first time in over a week. The Thunder haven’t lost a game since April 6. The Thunder have lost three home games since January 26.
The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 120 points on 45.7 percent shooting and allowing 100.5 points on 41.5 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 27.8 points and 6 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 23.3 points and 5.3 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Aaron Wiggins is grabbing 1.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 31.3 percent from beyond the arc and 78.8 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 30.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 46.3 rebounds per game.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won each of their last 13 games following a road win.
- The Nuggets have lost five of their last six road games against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last eight home games following a win.
- The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs following a win.
Why the Denver Nuggets will win
- The Thunder have lost four of their last five Western Conference Semifinals games as home favorites following a win.
- The underdogs have won six of the Nuggets’ last eight Western Conference Semifinals games.
- The Nuggets have covered the spread in each of their last four night games at Paycom Center.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four night games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Isaiah Joe ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.3) this season.
- Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
Denver Nuggets Player Facts
- Russell Westbrook is one of only two players to have recorded a triple-double off the bench this season.
- Jamal Murray ranks 11th amongst qualified players for FT% (88.6%) this season.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
The Thunder will be without Ousmane Dieng and Nikola Topic.
The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II.
Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction
The Thunder are going to get the benefit of the doubt because they’ve been the best team in the league all year. OKC is also at home with the rest advantage and is 57-26-4 ATS on the season. However, how much rest is too much rest? The Thunder haven’t played in over a week. While the Nuggets were in a dogfight against the Clippers, sometimes playing every other day is good for a rhythm. Also, due to game 7 being a blowout, Jokic only played 32 minutes, which was his lowest total of the series. The Nuggets should be fine in terms of rest.
The Nuggets have won two of the last three games against the Thunder which includes an upset March 10 as a 9.5-point underdog. The Nuggets have outright won four of their last seven games when underdogs of five or more points. I just think oddsmakers are being a little too disrespectful toward the Nuggets. Give me the points.