| MATCHUP | Denver Nuggets | Minnesota Timberwolves |
|---|---|---|
| Team Records | 54-28 | 49-33 |
| Spread | -1.5 -112 | +1.5 -108 |
| Moneyline | -122 | +102 |
| Total | Over 229.5 (-112) | Under 229.5 (-108) |
| Where | Target Center, Minneapolis, MN | |
| When | Saturday, April 25, 2026 | |
| Time | 08:30 PM EDT | |
| TV | ABC | |
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets need a win to rebound from two losses to even up the series. The Nuggets have won 13 of their last 15 games.
The Denver Nuggets are averaging 108.7 points on 40.8 percent shooting and allowing 112.3 points on 47 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 25.3 points and 14.3 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 25.3 points and 5 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Tim Hardaway Jr. is grabbing 3.7 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 30.3 percent from beyond the arc and 82.5 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 33.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.3 rebounds per game.
Minnesota Timberwolves Betting Preview
The Minnesota Timberwolves have a chance to take full control with a 3-1 series lead. The Timberwolves have won 5 of their last 7 games.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are averaging 112.3 points on 47 percent shooting and allowing 108.7 points on 40.8 percent shooting. Anthony Edwards is averaging 23 points and 8 rebounds, while Julius Randle is averaging 18.3 points and 4 assists. Jaden McDaniels is the third double-digit scorer, and Ayo Dosunmu is grabbing 2.3 rebounds. The Minnesota Timberwolves are shooting 33.3 percent from beyond the arc and 70 percent from the free-throw line. The Minnesota Timberwolves are allowing 30.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 48.3 rebounds per game.
Why the Minnesota Timberwolves will win
- The Timberwolves have won each of their last six Western Conference First Round games at Target Center.
- The Nuggets have lost four of their last six playoff games as favorites against Northwest Division opponents.
- The Timberwolves have covered the spread in each of their last six Western Conference First Round games at Target Center.
- The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as road favorites against Western Conference opponents.
Why the Denver Nuggets will win
- The Nuggets have won eight of their last nine night games following a road loss.
- The Timberwolves have lost each of their last three games following a home win.
- The favorites have covered the spread in each of the Timberwolves’ last four games at Target Center.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as home underdogs following a home win.
Total Points: Facts
- Ten of the Nuggets’ last 11 games as road favorites following a road loss have gone OVER the total points line.
- Nine of the Timberwolves’ last 11 playoff games at Target Center have gone OVER the total points line.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Naz Reid ranks 2nd amongst qualified Centers for three-pointers made per game (2.1) this season.
- Ayo Dosunmu ranks 6th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.9%) this season.
Denver Nuggets Player Facts
- Cameron Johnson ranks 8th amongst qualified players for 3P% (43.0%) this season.
- Tim Hardaway Jr. ranks 12th amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (3.8) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for blocks per game this season (5.8).
- The Timberwolves rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.1).
- The Nuggets rank 30th in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (11.8).
- The Nuggets rank 1st in the league for three-point percentage this season (39.6%).
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Injury Report
The Timberwolves don’t have any players listed on their injury report.
Peyton Watson is out for the Nuggets with a hamstring injury. Aaron Gordon is questionable with a calf issue.
Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Prediction
The Nuggets are favored because people are having a hard time believing they’re going to go down without a fight. I get it. However, while the Timberwolves have played with their food, haven’t covered numbers and haven’t earned our trust all season, this is the core that’s made back-to-back conference final trips. This series has been a quick reminder of how good the Timberwolves can be when they put it together.
There are several guys who can defend and make life hell, and we’re seeing it with Jokic. He hasn’t looked like himself and Gobert is putting his fingerprints all over this series. Also, the Gordon injury is massive, as you can argue he’s the glue guy who unlocks this team’s full potential. At home, I believe the wrong team is favored. I’m going to side with the Timberwolves.