Oklahoma City Thunder (18-5) vs Dallas Mavericks (16-8)
December 10, 2024 at 09:30 PM EST
The Line: Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -182 / Dallas Mavericks +155 — Over/Under: 226.5
This matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and the Oklahoma City Thunder on December 10th will be a high-stakes affair as part of the NBA Cup quarterfinals. Both teams have been performing well this season, showcasing distinct styles and strengths. The Thunder, boasting a strong defensive identity, lead the NBA in the fewest points allowed per game and have limited opponents to under 90 points in recent contests. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to be the focal point of their offense, delivering elite scoring and playmaking despite injuries to key players like Chet Holmgren and Alex Caruso.
The Mavericks, on the other hand, bring offensive firepower led by Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. The addition of Klay Thompson has enhanced their perimeter shooting, making them even tougher to defend. Dallas has been on a solid winning streak as of late and have been covering the spread at a high rate during this streak as well.
Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds
Luka Doncic has been a strong contributor on the boards for the Dallas Mavericks. Over 18 games, he has averaged 8.3 rebounds per game, with a breakdown of 7.7 defensive rebounds and 0.6 offensive rebounds per game. This places him among the league’s versatile players, balancing rebounding responsibilities while also excelling as a scorer and playmaker. His rebounding rate reflects his ability to dominate defensive possessions, which helps set the pace for the Mavericks’ transition game.
Luka is this Maveicks team’s leading rebounder so far this season and is coming off three straight massive games on the glass. He finished with 13 boards in his last game against the Toronto Raptors. I expect him to carry that momentum into Tuesday night playing this Thunder team that is giving up 57.6 rebounds to opposing teams which is the most in the NBA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 5.5 Assists
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been excelling as a playmaker for the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 6.3 assists per game. His consistent distribution has been key in creating scoring opportunities for teammates, complementing his strong scoring ability. Shai’s ability to control the game’s pace and make high-IQ decisions has made him one of the Thunder’s most valuable contributors, helping maintain their competitive standing in the league.
We’ve seen SGA get under six assists in his last two games but this is a good spot to buy low on him. With him averaging just under 30 points per game expect the Mavs to put a heavy emphasis on stopping SGA which will open things up for his teammates. The Mavs are giving up 26.8 assists per game to opposing teams which is well above the league average. With what’s on the line expect SGA to play a ton of minutes and fill up the stat sheet.
Jalen Williams Over 21.5 Points
Jalen Williams has been a significant contributor for the Oklahoma City Thunder during this season, showcasing growth in his scoring efficiency and volume. Through 23 games, he has averaged 22.0 points per game while playing 31.8 minutes per game. Williams has achieved an impressive shooting line, hitting 51.2% of his field goals on 16.7 attempts per game, including 39.3% from three-point range on 5.3 attempts. Additionally, he’s been effective at the free-throw line, converting 80.2% of his 3.5 attempts per game.
Taking the over on Jalen William’s points has been a money maker for me this season. He’s gotten over 21 points in seven of his last 10 games and more often than not he’s getting close to the 30-point mark. With the Thunder being without Chet Holmgren they’ve had to look at other options to score and Jalen William has shown up in a big way. I expect another big night for him on Tuesday.