Boston Celtics (79-21) vs Dallas Mavericks (63-40)
Game Info: Monday, June 17, 2024 at 8:30 pm (TD Garden)
The Line: Betting Odds: Boston Celtics -6.5 — Over/Under: 209
The Boston Celtics look to finish off the Dallas Mavericks at the TD Garden in Game 5 of the NBA Finals on Monday. Here’s a Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Prediction.
Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks were able to fight off the Celtics and finally get their first win of the series in a 122-84 win in Game 4 on Friday. Luka Doncic led the team with 29 points, five rebounds, five assists and three steals, Kyrie Irving added 21 points with six assists while Tim Hardaway drained five 3-pointers to finish with 15 points in just 12 minutes off the bench. As a team, the Mavericks shot 50 percent from the field and 15 of 37 from the 3-point line as they jumped all over the Celtics from the start and always looked in complete control after dominating the first half by 61-35. The Mavericks have been as close as you can be when trailing a team by 3-0, but it all came together for them in Game 4 as they set the tone defensively and outpaced the Celtics in one of the biggest wins in NBA Finals history. The Mavericks feasted inside the paint as they outscored the Celtics by 60-24 in the paint.
Boston Celtics
Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics must have plans to win at home as they came out flat on Friday and were never in the contest after getting blown out in the first half. Jayson Tatum led the team in scoring with just 15 points, Sam Hauser added 14 points off the bench while Jaylen Brown and Jrue Holiday each scored 10 points. As a team, the Celtics shot just 36 percent from the field and 14 of 41 from the 3-point line, but they struggled against the hustle of the desperate Mavericks and were always in deep trouble after scoring just 14 points in a nightmare second quarter. The Celtics looked nothing like the team that shot out to a 3-0 series lead and they put up almost no resistance once they fell behind by double digits early. Derrick White shot just two of eight from the field to finish with six points while Al Horford scored just three points in 23 minutes of action.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The Mavericks have won six of their last eight playoff games as underdogs.
- The Celtics have lost each of their last two playoff games as home favorites following a loss.
- The Celtics have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games as favorites.
- The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last four games at TD Garden following a home win.
Boston Celtics Player Facts
- Jrue Holiday ranks 2nd in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for 3P% (42.9%) this season.
- Derrick White is one of only four qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- P.J. Washington is one of only three players to have scored 40+ points off the bench in a game this season.
- Kyrie Irving ranks 7th amongst qualified players for FT% (90.5%) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Celtics rank 1st in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (3.7).
- The Celtics rank 1st in the league for turnovers per game this season (11.9).
- The Mavericks are one of only two teams to win 15+ games when trailing at HT this season.
- The Mavericks are one of only two teams to lose a game when leading by 20+ points after Q1 this season.
Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Prediction
The Mavericks came out swinging in Game 4 to stave off elimination and they will still be feeling that they have a chance to pull off the great escape after such a dominant win on Friday. The Celtics didn’t match the urgency of the Mavericks and quickly found themselves in deep trouble in Game 4 and I can see that happening again. The pressure is now all on the Celtics to finish the job and avoid catastrophe, so it’s the Magic who look dangerous as the road underdogs in this one. The Mavericks got a real injection of confidence after almost running down a 21-point deficit in Game 3 and now they’re playing great basketball with nothing to lose. The pressure is on the Celtics to finish off the job at home, but there is still an injury cloud hanging over Kristaps Porzingis, so I think the Mavericks stay hot and at least get the cover in what should be a close contest.