Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction 5/9/25 NBA Picks

Denver Nuggets Betting Preview 

The Denver Nuggets look for a win and a 2-1 series lead. The Nuggets have won 14 of their last 19 home playoff games. Three of the last four times the Nuggets lost a playoff game, they lost two in a row. 

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 109 points on 46.6 percent shooting and allowing 114 points on 48.7 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 25.2 points and 12.3 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 21.7 points and 5.2 rebounds. Aaron Gordon is the third double-digit scorer, and Russell Westbrook is grabbing 4 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38.2 percent from beyond the arc and 74.4 percent from the free-throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 37.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.9 rebounds per game.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The underdogs have won each of the Thunder's last five games at Ball Arena.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last seven playoff road games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the last nine games between the Thunder and Nuggets at Ball Arena.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six night games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 13 of their last 14 road games following a win.
• The Nuggets have lost four of their last five Game 3s of a Western Conference Semifinals series.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in six of their last seven games at Ball Arena against Nuggets teams that held a winning record.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five playoff home games against Northwest Division opponents.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Russell Westbrook is one of only two players to have recorded a triple-double off the bench this season.
• Jamal Murray ranks 11th amongst qualified players for FT% (88.6%) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Isaiah Joe ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.3) this season.
• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Injury Report 

The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic.

The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction

The Thunder and the small chalk is worth a look because they’re the best bet in sports. The Thunder are 58-27-4 ATS on the season. I get it. Game 2 was also such a beatdown, that it’s easy to think there’s a wide gap between these teams. However, the Nuggets are a tough out at home and they have won their last two home playoff games as an underdog. It seems like when people were quick to write off the Nuggets against the Clippers, they responded well. This is an experienced team that’s playing together well and I don’t believe game 2 is an indication of how the rest of this series plays out. I’ll grab the points with the Nuggets.