Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 5/7/25 NBA Picks

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview 

The Oklahoma City Thunder need a win to avoid falling in a 0-2 hole. The Thunder haven’t lost back-to-back games just once since November 20. The Thunder have lost four home games since January 26. 

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 119.8 points on 44.9 percent shooting and allowing 104.6 points on 42.1 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.8 points and 6.4 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 21.8 points and 5.6 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Alex Caruso is grabbing 3.4 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 32.1 percent from beyond the arc and 77.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 30.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.6 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last seven games at Paycom Center following a home loss.
• The Nuggets have lost five of their last six games after winning as underdogs.
• The Nuggets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four road games following a road win.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in 15 of their last 18 night games.

Why the Denver Nuggets will win

• The Nuggets have won four of their last five playoff games as underdogs against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last three Western Conference Semifinals games as home favorites.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine night games against Northwest Division opponents that held a winning record.
• The Nuggets have covered the spread in each of their last five night games at Paycom Center.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Isaiah Joe ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per 36 minutes (4.3) this season.
• Jalen Williams ranks 7th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.

Denver Nuggets Player Facts

• Russell Westbrook is one of only two players to have recorded a triple-double off the bench this season.
• Jamal Murray ranks 11th amongst qualified players for FT% (88.6%) this season.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report 

The Thunder will be without Nikola Topic.

The Nuggets will be without DaRon Holmes II.

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Thunder have lost two straight games once since December, and they’re still the best bet in sports with a 57-27-4 ATS record. I wouldn’t talk you off the ledge if expecting the Thunder to bounce back in convincing fashion. However, the Nuggets are a team that’s growing on me as they just play well together and find ways to win even if they shouldn’t.

The Nuggets are also a gritty experienced team that seems to handle the moment better. while the Thunder have bashed teams into the ground all year, there’s still an inexperience factor here and who knows how they’re going to respond from such a loss. for the first time this season, the Thunder are on their heels and kind of in a must-win spot. Also, the Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as a double-digit underdog, and they’ve outright won four of those covers. Give me the points.