Houston Rockets (52-30) vs Golden State Warriors (48-34)
Game Info: Sunday, May 4, 2025 at 8:30 pm (Toyota Center (Houston))
Betting Odds: Houston Rockets -2.5 -- Over/Under: 204 Click Here for the Latest Odds
Where to Watch: TNT
Golden State Warriors Betting Preview
The Golden State Warriors are now playing to stay alive after falling short against the Rockets in a 115-107 home defeat on Game 6 on Friday. Stephen Curry drained six 3-pointers to lead the team with 29 points on nine of 23 shooting, Jimmy Butler added 27 points with nine rebounds and eight assists, while Moses Moody chipped in with 13 points off the bench.
As a team, the Warriors shot just 41 percent from the field and 15 of 49 from the 3-point line. However, despite their poor shooting, the Warriors were able to hang around and keep the game close until they went cold in the fourth quarter, where they fell behind by as many as 17 points at one stage. Gary Payton II finished with just five points on two of five shooting, while Buddy Hield finished scoreless on zero of four shooting.
Houston Rockets Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Houston Rockets are now playing to stay alive for the third straight game after taking down the Warriors in an impressive road win on Friday. Fred VanVleet hasn't been at his best all series, but he woke up with 29 points, eight rebounds, and eight assists. Alperen Sengun added 21 points with 14 rebounds and six assists, while Steven Adams chipped in with 17 points and three blocks off the bench.
As a team, the Rockets shot 44 percent from the field and 12 of 30 from the 3-point line as they took the early lead and held a narrow lead for most of the contest. Before they clicked into gear and went on a decisive 12-0 run in the fourth quarter to turn a five-point lead into a 17-point lead. Jalen Green had another quiet game with just 12 points on three of 11 shooting, and Adams was the only bench player to score more than eight points.
Why the Houston Rockets will win
- The Rockets have won each of their last six Western Conference First Round games at Toyota Center following a win.
- The Warriors have lost each of their last six games as road underdogs against Southwest Division opponents following a loss.
- The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six playoff games as underdogs.
- The Rockets have covered the spread in four of their last five Western Conference First Round games.
Why the Golden State Warriors will win
- The Warriors have won each of their last four games as road underdogs against the Rockets following a loss.
- The Rockets have lost three of their last four Western Conference First Round games as favorites following a win.
- The Warriors have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games following a home loss.
- The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday home games.
Houston Rockets Player Facts
- Amen Thompson ranks 2nd amongst qualified Guards for FG% (55.7%) this season.
- Fred VanVleet ranks 8th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.
Golden State Warriors Player Facts
- Jimmy Butler has recorded three career playoff triple-doubles.
- Gary Payton II ranks 8th amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.0) this season.
Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction
The Warriors are expected to have a full squad once again, while the Rockets are still playing without Jae'Sean Tate and Jock Landale. The Warriors already missed two opportunities to close out the series and are now just one loss away from a first-round playoff exit. But the momentum is clearly with the Rockets, who are brimming with confidence now that they have home-court advantage.
The Warriors are certainly capable of pulling off the upset on the road given their championship experience, but I expect the Rockets' role players to step up at home. You can make an argument for either side, but the Rockets are playing great defense at the moment, and I think that will be the difference in a close one.
Peter’s Pick Houston -2.5
AUTHOR: Peter Tran
