Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction 4/23/25 NBA Picks

Houston Rockets Betting Preview 

The Houston Rockets need a win here to have a realistic chance of winning the series. The Rockets have lost each of their last four games. 

The Houston Rockets are averaging 114.3 points on 45.5 percent shooting and allowing 109.8 points on 45.9 percent shooting. Alperen Sengun is averaging 26 points and 9 rebounds, while Dillon Brooks is averaging 11 points and 3 rebounds. Jabari Smith Jr. is the third double-digit scorer, and Fred VanVleet is dishing 7 assists. The Houston Rockets are shooting 35.3 percent from beyond the arc and 73.8 percent from the free-throw line. The Houston Rockets are allowing 35.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 48.5 rebounds per game.

Why the Houston Rockets will win

• The Rockets have won each of their last 10 Wednesday night games at Toyota Center.
• The Warriors have lost eight of their last nine road games against Southwest Division opponents after winning as underdogs.
• The Rockets have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Warriors after losing as favorites.
• The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games after winning as underdogs.

Why the Golden State Warriors will win

• The Warriors have won each of their last seven road games.
• The Rockets have lost seven of their last eight Western Conference First Round games against Pacific Division opponents.
• The Warriors have covered the spread in each of their last seven games at Toyota Center.
• The Rockets have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games at Toyota Center against Warriors teams that held a winning record.

Houston Rockets Player Facts

• Amen Thompson ranks 2nd amongst qualified Guards for FG% (55.7%) this season.
• Fred VanVleet ranks 8th amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.6) this season.

Golden State Warriors Player Facts

• Jimmy Butler has recorded three career playoff triple-doubles.
• Gary Payton II ranks 8th amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.0) this season.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Injury Report 

The Rockets will be without Jae'Sean Tate and Jock Landale.

The Warriors don’t have any players listed on their injury report.

Golden State Warriors vs Houston Rockets Prediction

I’d expect the Rockets to play better with a playoff game under their belt and this is a must-win situation if they want a real chance to win the series. You can’t lose the first two games at home and like your chances to advance. So, I can understand why the Rockets are getting the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers. With that said, the Warriors managed to win game 1 despite it being played at the Rockets' pace. The Warriors weren’t able to go crazy offensively and still won by 10 points. The Warriors are now 8-2 SU and ATS in the last 10 games against the Rockets.

The Warriors have endless playoff experience on their roster, while the Rockets are still wet behind the ears. There are also two closers in Curry and Butler, which you don’t often see. A Rockets win wouldn’t be shocking, but the value is with the Warriors and the free bucket, as they’re built for this time of year. The Rockets and their youth is still a question mark. Give me the bucket.