Indiana Pacers (35-28) vs Milwaukee Bucks (36-27)
Game Info: Tuesday, March 11, 2025 at 7:30 pm (Gainbridge Fieldhouse)
Betting Odds: Indiana Pacers +3 -- Over/Under: 234.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
Where to Watch: TNT
The Indiana Pacers (35-27) will host the Milwaukee Bucks (36-26) on March 11, 2025, at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. The Pacers come into the game on a three-game home winning streak, while the Bucks have lost their last two contests. Milwaukee has gone 7-3 in their last 10 games, with Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the way, averaging 30.9 points and 12.0 rebounds per game, while Damian Lillard contributes 7.1 assists per contest.
Indiana, with a 6-4 record in its last 10 games, is led by Pascal Siakam, averaging 20.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, and Tyrese Haliburton, who leads the team with 8.9 assists per game. Betting trends indicate a high-scoring affair, as the over has hit in 11 of the last 12 meetings between these teams in Indiana. The Bucks have also seen the over hit in 11 of their last 16 games when favored by 5.0-10.5 points, while the Pacers tend to hit the under in games played on zero days' rest. Given both teams' recent performances and their high-scoring history in Indiana, this matchup is expected to be closely contested and full of offensive firepower.
Brook Lopez Under 11.5 Points
Brook Lopez, the veteran center for the Milwaukee Bucks has played in 36 games, starting all of them, and averages 32.0 minutes per game. Lopez contributes to the team's offense with an average of 12.3 points per game. His shooting efficiency includes a field goal percentage of 48.7%, a three-point percentage of 37.2%, and a free throw percentage of 75.0%. Additionally, he averages 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.9 blocks per game. Since the Bucks acquired Kyle Kuzma, we’ve seen Lopez’s scoring production slow down. He’s failed to score double-digit points in his last 3 games. Oddsmakers haven’t made any adjustments to his line, and I’m looking to exploit that.
Giannis Antekokoumpo Over 28.5 Points
Giannis Antetokounmpo, forward for the Milwaukee Bucks, is having an outstanding 2024–2025 NBA season. As of March 10, 2025, he has played in 58 games, averaging 34.2 minutes per game. Antetokounmpo contributes significantly to the team's offense, with an average of 31.2 points per game. His shooting efficiency includes a field goal percentage of 61.0%, a three-point percentage of 38.5%, and a free throw percentage of 57.7%. Additionally, he averages 11.9 rebounds, 5.8 assists, 1.0 steals, and 1.5 blocks per game. Giannis has picked up his scoring production lately, scoring 30+ points in his last three games. We all know the Pacers like to play at a fast pace, so this should set up perfectly for Giannis to have another strong night scoring the ball.
Aaron Nesmith Over 13.5 Points
Nesmith is averaging approximately 10.5 points per game. He’s shooting around 45% from the field (FG%), based on his made-attempted stats. Nesmith’s three-point percentage is a standout, hovering around 42%. His free-throw percentage is approximately 78%, an improvement from earlier career marks. He’s attempting fewer free throws (around 1.5-2 per game), reflecting his role as a perimeter-oriented player. Nesmith has been a money maker as of late if you’ve been betting his overs. He’s gotten over his point in 8 of his last 10 games, and oddmakers haven’t adjusted his line. In what should be a high-scoring contest, I expect Nesmith to once again cash the over on his points.
Brad’s Pick See Above
AUTHOR: Brad Francis
