Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Prediction NBA Picks 6/6/24

Boston Celtics (76-20) vs Dallas Mavericks (62-37)

Game Info: Thursday, June 6, 2024 at 8:30 pm (TD Garden)

Betting Odds: Boston Celtics -6.5 --- Over/Under: 214 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Dallas Mavericks and the Boston Celtics duke it out in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at the TD Garden on Thursday night. Here's a Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Prediction.

Dallas Mavericks

The Dallas Mavericks have had a tough route to the NBA Finals as they had to take down the Clippers, the Thunder and the Timberwolves despite not having home-court advantage in any of those series. Luka Doncic has been brilliant as he has been averaging 28.8 points, 9.6 rebounds and 8.8 assists per game. Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.8 points, 3.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, PJ Washington is averaging 13.6 points per game while Derrick Jones Jr is averaging 9.8 points and 1.8 blocks per game. As a team, the Mavericks are scoring 107.9 points per game while shooting 47.1 percent from the field and 37.2 percent from the 3-point line. Where the Mavs have shown the most improvement has been on the defensive end, where they were ranked just 18th during the regular season.

Boston Celtics

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics have comparatively had a much easier road to the NBA Finals as they took down the Heat and the Cavaliers in five games each. Before they swept the shorthanded Pacers to return to the big dance once again. Jayson Tatum led the team with averages of 26.0 points, 10.4 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game. Jaylen Brown added 25.0 points with 6.1 rebounds and 2.6 assists per game, Derrick White is averaging 17.8 points with 4.6 assists per game while Jrue Holiday is averaging 12.7 points and 4.6 assists per game. As a team, the Celtics are scoring 111.4 points per game while shooting 48.0 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from the 3-point line. The Celtics main strength is on the defensive end as they rank third in the league, the postseason for defensive rating.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

The Mavericks have won each of their last five games as underdogs.
The Celtics have lost each of their last two NBA Finals games as home favorites.
The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last 10 Thursday night games.
The Celtics have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games as favorites following a win.

Boston Celtics Player Facts

Jrue Holiday ranks 2nd in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for 3P% (42.9%) this season.
Derrick White is one of only four qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.

Dallas Mavericks Player Facts

P.J. Washington is one of only three players to have scored 40+ points off the bench in a game this season.
Kyrie Irving ranks 7th amongst qualified players for FT% (90.5%) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

The Celtics rank 1st in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (3.7).
The Celtics rank 1st in the league for turnovers per game this season (11.9).
The Mavericks are one of only two teams to win 15+ games when trailing at HT this season.
The Mavericks are one of only two teams to lose a game when leading by 20+ points after Q1 this season.

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics Prediction

The Mavericks weren't the most convincing team as contenders during the regular season. The Mavs backcourt has been firing for them during these playoffs, and they have more than a chance of pulling off the upset with Doncic playing as well as he has been. The Celtics predictably open as favorites in this series, and they did beat the Mavericks in both meetings during the regular season. The Mavericks have won seven of their nine road games during these playoffs and I think they can kick off this series with another upset here. The Celtics weren't totally convincing in their sweep of the Pacers, and there is still an injury cloud hanging over Kristaps Porzingis. This should be a close one, so I am backing the Mavericks to at least stay within a couple of possessions.