Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction NBA Picks 5/15/24

Oklahoma City Thunder (63-27) vs Dallas Mavericks (56-36)

Game Info: Wednesday, May 15, 2024 at 9:30 pm (Paycom Center)

Betting Odds: Oklahoma City Thunder -227 / Dallas Mavericks +190 --- Over/Under: 215.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Wednesday in Game 5 West Second Round NBA Playoffs action at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview

The Dallas Mavericks look for a big road win to take a 3-2 series lead. The Mavs are 3-2 SU on the road in these NBA playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 105.7 points on 44.8 percent shooting and allowing 103 points on 43.7 percent shooting. Luka Doncic is averaging 26.7 points and 8.8 assists, while Kyrie Irving is averaging 21.9 points and 4.4 rebounds. PJ Washington is the third double-digit scorer and Derrick Jones Jr. is grabbing 4 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 35.2 percent from beyond the arc and 69.3 percent from the free throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 36.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.2 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder look for back to back wins to take a 3-2 series lead. OKC is 3-1 SU at home in these NBA playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 106.1 points on 46.1 percent shooting and allowing 96.6 points on 41.1 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 29.5 points and 6 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 19.1 points and 6.6 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer and Luguentz Dort is grabbing 4.6 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 37.1 percent from beyond the arc and 80.4 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 32.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.9 rebounds per game.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report

The Dallas Mavericks will be without Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Maxi Kleber and Greg Brown III. Luka Doncic is listed as probable despite a knee injury. Luka has been dealing with a knee injury all playoffs, but he’s still racked up 418 postseason minutes, so I’d expect him to continue to push through. Luka played 42 minutes in game 4, the most minutes he’s played in a single game this series. The Oklahoma City Thunder don’t have a single player on their injury report, making them the healthiest team in the NBA playoffs.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

  • The Thunder have won 12 of their last 13 night games at Paycom Center following a road win.
  • The Mavericks have lost each of their last six games at Paycom Center following a home loss.
  • The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last five games against the Mavericks after winning as underdogs.
  • The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against the Thunder after losing as favorites.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

  • Jalen Williams ranks 2nd amongst qualified Forwards for 3P% (42.7%) this season.
  • Cason Wallace ranks 14th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.9%) this season.

Dallas Mavericks Player Facts

  • Tim Hardaway Jr. is one of only 21 players to have scored 30+ points off the bench in a game this season.
  • Dereck Lively II is one of only 11 players in the league to have recorded 7+ blocks in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent turnovers per game this season (15.7).
  • The Thunder rank 1st in the league for three-point percentage this season (38.9%).
  • The Mavericks are one of only two teams to win 15+ games when trailing at HT this season.
  • The Mavericks are one of only two teams to lose a game when leading by 20+ points after Q1 this season.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

I still think the Dallas Mavericks can win this series, but the Luka injury remains a massive issue. Luka hasn't been himself in these playoffs, and he's shooting 39 percent from the field and 31 percent from three in this series. Kyrie Irving played 41 minutes in game 4 and scored 9 points. Kyrie got outscored by Daniel Gafford on fewer shots. As Ive said before, the Mavs are in a rough spot if Kyrie and Luka aren't going to be Kyrie and Luka. That's even more the case, playing on the road. I kind of expect this series to go the distance, but that starts with OKC winning and covering the small number in game 5 on Wednesday.

Randy’s Pick Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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