Heat vs Nuggets Prediction - NBA Picks 6/12/23

Denver Nuggets (68-33) vs Miami Heat (58-48)

Game Info: Monday, June 12, 2023 at 8:30 pm (Ball Arena)

Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets -9 -- Over/Under: 208 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ABC Stream live sports and exclusive originals on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

The Miami Heat will be playing to stay alive against the Denver Nuggets in Game 5 of the NBA Finals at the Ball Arena on Monday night.

The Miami Heat are now battling to keep their season alive after getting routed by the Nuggets in a 108-95 loss in Game 4 on Friday. Jimmy Butler led the way with 25 points, seven rebounds and seven assists, Bam Adebayo added 20 points with 11 rebounds and three assists while Kyle Lowry chipped in with 13 points and seven assists off the bench. As a team, the Heat shot 44 percent from the field and eight of 25 from the 3-point line as they got off to a decent start and stayed within striking distance in the first half, but they went cold in the third quarter and couldn’t get over the hump despite cutting a 13-point deficit to just five points at the start of the fourth quarter. The Heat got some decent contributions from Duncan Robinson and Caleb Martin, but they got nothing from Gabe Vincent who scored just two points on one of six shooting and Max Strus who finished scoreless.

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets are now in a commanding 3-1 series lead after taking care of business in Game 4 on Friday. Aaron Gordon led the team in scoring with 27 points, seven rebounds and six assists, Nikola Jokic tallied 23 points with 12 rebounds and four assists, Bruce Brown provided the spark off the bench with 21 points on eight of 11 shooting while Jamal Murray chipped in with 15 points and 12 assists. As a team, the Nuggets shot 49 percent from the field and 14 of 28 from the 3-point line as they poured in 35 points in the second quarter to take the early lead, before they kept the Heat to just 44 points in the second half to make it a blowout. The Nuggets weren’t as dominant in the paint as they were in Game 3, but they played great defense in forcing the Heat to 15 turnovers.

Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against a team above .600, 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games, 6-2 ATS in their last eight games following a win of more than 10 points and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

Head to head, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall, the Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Denver and the Heat are 10-28 ATS in the last 38 meetings overall.

The Heat currently have Tyler Herro listed as a game-time decision, but coach Spoelstra’s recent comments makes me believe we won’t see him at all. The Heat are in a world of hurt now and they just seem out of answers for this dynamic Nuggets squad who now have the opportunity to win the championship in front of their home crowd. I expect the Heat to come out with their best effort in this one and I think they can get the win if Butler has a big game, but the Nuggets have won nine of their last 10 home games in these playoffs and I think they get the job done here. I think the Heat hang around for most of the contest, but in the end I have the Nuggets pulling away for the win and cover.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NBA and NCAAB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Friday 12/8/23 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.