Heat vs Nuggets Prediction - NBA Picks 6/1/23

Denver Nuggets (65-32) vs Miami Heat (57-45)

Game Info: Thursday, June 1, 2023 at 8:30 pm (Ball Arena)

Betting Odds: Denver Nuggets -9 -- Over/Under: 218.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat and the Denver Nuggets kick off the NBA Finals in Game 1 at the Ball Arena on Thursday night.

The Miami Heat have had to do it the tough way all season, but they outlasted the Celtics in a seven-game series to book their tickets to the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler has been leading from the front with 28.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.7 assists and 2.1 steals per game, Bam Adebayo averaged 16.8 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game, Caleb Martin averaged 14.1 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game while Gabe Vincent averaged 13.1 points and 3.9 assists per game. As a team, the Heat are scoring 111.7 points per game, while shooting 47.2 percent from the field and 39.0 percent from the 3-point line.

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets have had the luxury of waiting for the NBA finals to begin after they swept past the Lakers in a quick series in the Western Conference Finals. Nikola Jokic has been a monster in the playoffs as he has been averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game, Jamal Murray is averaging 27.7 points, 5.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists per game, Michael Porter Jr. is averaging 14.6 points and 8.0 rebounds per game while Aaron Gordon is averaging 13.0 points and 5.5 rebounds per game. As a team, the Nuggets are scoring 116.4 points per game while shooting 49.0 percent from the field and 38.6 percent from the 3-point line.

Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games, 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games playing on two days rest and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record.

Head to head, the over is 5-0 in the last five meetings overall, the Heat are 1-5 ATS in the last six meetings in Denver and the Heat are 9-25 ATS in the last 34 meetings overall.

The Heat are still missing Victor Oladipo but the good news is that they could have Tyler Herro back in the lineup for Game 3 assuming that he doesn’t experience any setbacks, while the Nuggets are coming into this series at full health and they should be well rested as they haven’t seen the court in almost two weeks. These two teams met just twice in the regular season with the Nuggets winning on both occasions, so it’s no surprise at all that they’ve opened as big favorites at home in this one. You can make an argument for either side, but the Heat are only 9-25 ATS in the last 34 meetings overall and I think that trend continues here as the Nuggets draw first blood with a solid win in front of their home crowd.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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