Heat vs Celtics Prediction - NBA Picks 5/29/23

Boston Celtics (68-33) vs Miami Heat (56-45)

Game Info: Monday, May 29, 2023 at 8:30 pm (TD Garden)

Betting Odds: Boston Celtics -7.5 -- Over/Under: 203.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics duke it out in a dramatic Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the TD Garden on Monday night.

The Miami Heat kicked off the series with three straight wins, but they are now with their backs against the wall after seeing the series get tied up in the final second of a 104-103 loss to the Celtics in Game 6. Jimmy Butler led the team with 24 points, 11 rebounds and eight assists, Caleb Martin added 21 points with 15 rebounds while Gabe Vincent chipped in with 15 points. As a team, the Heat shot just 35 percent from the field and 14 of 30 from the 3-point line as they trailed for most of the contest, clawing their way back from a 13-point deficit to take the lead late in the game, only to lose at the buzzer as the Celtics’ Derrick White made the game-winning putback layup to snatch the game from the Heat and send the series into a decider. Bam Adebayo had a rough shooting night as he shot just four of 16 for his 11 points while Jimmy Butler shot just five of 21 from the field.

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics will be brimming with confidence after rallying back from a 3-0 series deficit to tie it up with a thrilling win in Game 6 on Saturday. Jayson Tatum led the way with 31 points, 12 rebounds and five assists, Jaylen Brown added 26 points with 10 rebounds while Marcus Smart chipped in with 21 points. As a team, the Celtics shot 43 percent from the field and seven of 35 from the 3-point line as they got off to a quick start and looked to be in control for most of the contest, but they allowed the Heat back into the game and needed a heroic finish from White who pulled off the biggest play of the game to keep their season alive.

Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a loss and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The Celtics are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a loss.

Head to head, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Boston, the Heat are 15-6 ATS in the last 21 meetings in Boston and the Heat are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings overall.

The Celtics are keeping an eye on Malcolm Brogdon who is questionable, while the Heat are sweating on the availability of Gabe Vincent who is questionable due to a left ankle sprain. The Heat might still be in shock after losing at the buzzer on Saturday, but they don’t have time to dwell on their missed opportunity with Game 7 still to play. The momentum is completely with the Celtics and they have the advantage of home-court advantage here which is massive given what is at stake. The Heat were good enough to rally back and almost win Game 6 and I can’t imagine they’ll give up here no matter what the score is. With that being said, I’ll lean towards the Heat and the points in what should be another close one.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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