Heat vs Celtics Prediction - NBA Picks 5/25/23

Boston Celtics (66-33) vs Miami Heat (56-43)

Game Info: Thursday, May 25, 2023 at 8:30 pm (TD Garden)

Betting Odds: Boston Celtics -7.5 -- Over/Under: 214.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics collide in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the TD Garden on Thursday night.

The Miami Heat will be hoping to finish off the job and advance to the NBA Finals after getting routed by the Celtics in a 116-99 loss in Game 4 on Tuesday. Jimmy Butler led the way with 29 points, nine rebounds and five assists, Gabe Vincent added 17 points with four assists while Caleb Martin chipped in with 16 points on six of nine shooting off the bench. As a team, the Heat shot just 43 percent from the field and eight of 32 from the 3-point line as they got off to a decent start and took the lead into halftime, only to get blown away by 66-43 in the second half to allow the Celtics to keep the series alive. Bam Adebayo had a quiet game of just 10 points while Kyle Lowry scored just five points on two of eight shooting off the bench.

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics needed to respond after getting embarrassed in Game 3 and they did just that with a dominant win in Game 4. Jayson Tatum led the team with 33 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists on 14 of 22 shooting, Jaylen Brown added 17 points while Derrick White chipped in with 16 points. As a team, the Celtics shot a healthy 51 percent from the field and 18 of 45 from the 3-point line as they struggled to get going in the first half, before they exploded for 38 points in the third quarter to take control and earn the important victory.

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Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against a team with a winning record and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Celtics are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.

Head to head, the over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings overall, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Boston and the Heat are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings overall. 

The Heat will be disappointed that they weren’t able to seal the deal at home on Thursday, but there is no reason to be worried with a 3-1 series lead. The Celtics were good enough to avoid the sweep on Tuesday and it was a real team effort with six players finishing in double figures in scoring, but they won’t survive another quiet game from Brogdon unless Brown can lift his production. The Heat could be shorthanded here as Gabe Vincent is listed as questionable with a left ankle sprain, so I’m backing the Celtics to keep the series alive for at least one more game.

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Peter’s Pick Boston -7.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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