Celtics vs Heat Prediction - NBA Picks 5/21/23

Miami Heat (55-42) vs Boston Celtics (65-32)

Game Info: Sunday, May 21, 2023 at 8:30 pm (Kaseya Center)

Betting Odds: Miami Heat +3 -- Over/Under: 215 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat collide in a pivotal Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the Kaseya Center on Sunday night.

The Boston Celtics are now desperate for a win after coming up short to the Heat in a heartbreaking 111-105 home loss in Game 2 on Friday. Jayson Tatum led the team with 34 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists on 10 of 20 shooting, Jaylen Brown added 16 points, while Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogdon scored 13 points each. As a team, the Celtics shot 46 percent from the field and 10 of 35 from the 3-point line as they exploded for 33 points in the third quarter to build a 12-point lead, only to fall victim to a 24-9 run to see their lead disappear. Still, the Celtics had their chances to make up for their mistakes in the fourth quarter, but they just couldn’t slow down the Heat’s Jimmy Butler once again and it cost them.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are now looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead after outlasting the Celtics in a thrilling comeback win in Game 2. Jimmy Butler led the team with 27 points, eight rebounds, six assists, three steals and two blocks, Bam Adebayo racked up 22 points with 17 rebounds and nine assists while Caleb Martin and Duncan Robinson contributed 25 and 15 points respectively. As a team, the Heat shot 45 percent from the field and nine of 26 from the 3-point line as they looked to be in trouble when they fell behind in the third quarter, but they stayed within striking distance and made their move with 36 points in the fourth quarter to earn the crucial victory.

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Looking at the betting trends, the Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a loss and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. The Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

Head to head, the over is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall, the Celtics are 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings overall and the Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.

The Celtics could easily be up 2-0 heading into Miami, but they are now in deep trouble after dropping both of their home games. Jimmy Butler has been leading the way for the Heat, but it hasn’t just been a one-man show as players like Adebayo, Martin and Robinson all stepped up their production in Game 2. The Celtics refused to double-team Butler and he has already burned them twice, but with what is at stake, I think the Celtics finally make the adjustments to earn a narrow win and finally gain some footing in this series. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami and given what is at stake, I think they get it done in this one.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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