Heat vs Celtics Prediction - NBA Picks 5/17/23

Boston Celtics (65-30) vs Miami Heat (53-42)

Game Info: Wednesday, May 17, 2023 at 8:30 pm (TD Garden)

Betting Odds: Boston Celtics -8.5 -- Over/Under: 210 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat duke it out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the TD Garden on Wednesday night. 

The Boston Celtics continue their march towards the NBA Finals after dispatching of the Philadelphia 76ers in a thrilling seven-game series. Jayson Tatum led the way with 28.2 points, 10.6 rebounds and 5.2 assists per game, Jaylen Brown is averaging 24.6 points and 3.4 assists per game, Marcus Smart is averaging 15.8 points and 5.1 assists per game while Malcolm Brogdon is averaging 14.8 points and 3.6 assists per game. As a team, the Celtics are scoring 115.5 points per game, while shooting 48.7 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from the 3-point line. 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are now just one round away from an NBA Finals berth after taking care of the Knicks in a 4-2 series in the second round. Jimmy Butler led the way with 31.1 points, 6.6 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game, Bam Adebayo is averaging 18.1 points, 9.2 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game, Gabe Vincent is providing 11.5 points and 4.8 assists per game while Kyle Lowry is averaging 10.1 points and 4.5 assists per game. As a team, the Heat scored 113.3 points per game, while shooting 46.9 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from the 3-point line. 

Looking at the betting trends, the Celtics are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games playing on three or more days rest and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall. The Celtics are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record and 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games overall. 

Head to head, the over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Boston and the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in Boston. 

The Celtics are just about at full strength while the Heat are still missing Tyler Herro and they are keeping an eye on Cody Zeller who is listed as questionable. The Celtics come into this series as the more tested team given that they had to survive a seven-game series against the 76ers and they are expectedly favorites in Game 1, but I just feel the line is too high for this one. The Heat were good enough to win two games against the Celtics in the regular season and they are the more rested team, so I'll take the points in what I think will be a close one. The Celtics hold the obvious edge in depth and they're playing at home, but I think the Heat hang around right till the end in this one.


The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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