Nuggets vs Suns Prediction - NBA Picks 5/11/23

Phoenix Suns (51-40) vs Denver Nuggets (59-32)

Game Info: Thursday, May 11, 2023 at 10:00 pm (Footprint Center)

Betting Odds: Phoenix Suns -3.5 -- Over/Under: 227 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Denver Nuggets and Phoenix Suns meet Thursday in Game 6 of the NBA West Semifinal Playoffs at the Footprint Center. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

The Denver Nuggets are averaging 114.9 points on 48.5 percent shooting and allowing 107.3 points on 47 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 30.6 points and 13.1 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 25.9 points and 5.3 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. is the third double-digit scorer and Aaron Gordon is grabbing 6.1 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38 percent from beyond the arc and 79.7 percent from the free throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 33.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.7 rebounds per game.

The Phoenix Suns are averaging 115.6 points on 49.8 percent shooting and allowing 115.6 points on 47.5 percent shooting. Devin Booker is averaging 35.9 points and 7.1 assists, while Kevin Durant is averaging 29.6 points and 9.1 rebounds. Deandre Ayton is the third double-digit scorer and Chris Paul is grabbing 5 rebounds. The Phoenix Suns are shooting 35.9 percent from beyond the arc and 81 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Suns are allowing 36.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41.1 rebounds per game.

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The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. The Suns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Conference Semifinals games and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games. The over is 6-2-1 in Nuggets last 9 overall. The over is 9-3-1 in Suns last 13 overall. The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 meetings.

The Denver Nuggets are the better deeper team and getting free points with them is attractive. However, as I said in my game 5 write up, this feels like a series where the home team wins each game until the seventh effort, where anything can happen. So far, the road team hasn't been able to really even keep games close. The only reason to think that changes here is that Booker and Durant continue to log insane minutes, and eventually they could fold playing every other day. Still, I'll continue to back the home teams in this series. Give me the Suns and the reasonable chalk.

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Randy’s Pick Phoenix Suns -3.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.
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