Heat vs Knicks Prediction - NBA Picks 5/10/23

New York Knicks (52-39) vs Miami Heat (52-41)

Game Info: Wednesday, May 10, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Madison Square Garden)

Betting Odds: New York Knicks -3.5 -- Over/Under: 210 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The New York Knicks will be hoping to stave off elimination against the Miami Heat in Game 5 at Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night.

The Miami Heat are now just one win away from advancing to the Conference Finals after outlasting the Knicks in a 109-101 win in Game 4 on Monday. Jimmy Butler led the team with 27 points and 10 assists on nine of 17 shooting, Bam Adebayo added 23 points, 13 rebounds and two assists while Max Strus chipped in with 16 points. As a team, the Heat shot 47 percent from the field and 13 of 39 from the 3-point line as they set up the win with their defense, holding the Knicks to just 18 points in the second quarter to take the lead, before they poured in 34 points in the third quarter to pull away and earn the crucial win. Gabe Vincent had a night to forget as he scored just three points on one of seven shooting while Duncan Robinson scored just three points on one of eight shooting off the bench.

Meanwhile, the New York Knicks are now playing to keep their season alive after coming up short against the Heat in Game 4. Jalen Brunson led the team with 32 points and 11 assists on 10 of 21 shooting, RJ Barrett added 24 points on nine of 16 shooting while Julius Randle chipped in with 20 points, nine rebounds and three assists. As a team, the Knicks shot 48 percent from the field and nine of 28 from the 3-point line, but they just got nothing from their reserve players and that was always going to cost them in such a close contest. The Knicks’ bench players were a non-factor as they combined for just 10 points compared to the Heat’s 32 points.

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Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Knicks are 0-5 ATS in their last five Conference Semifinals games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.

Head to head, the under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York, the Heat are 13-5 ATS in the last 18 meetings in New York and the Heat are 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings overall.

The Heat are going to be shorthanded again as they are still missing Tyler Herro and they are keeping eyes on Caleb Martin and Jimmy Butler who are both questionable. The Knicks are also shorthanded as Immanuel Quickley is listed as doubtful once again which is a shame because they could really do with his scoring, especially with the bench struggling. It’s tempting to take the Knicks who will surely come out swinging in this must-win game, but the Heat have shown that they’re the better team and I think they can seal the deal if Butler is able to suit up in this one. Check the lineups before tipoff, but I like the Heat to get the win and advance in this spot.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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