Heat vs Knicks Prediction - NBA Picks 4/30/23

New York Knicks (51-36) vs Miami Heat (49-40)

Game Info: Sunday, April 30, 2023 at 1:00 pm (Madison Square Garden)

Betting Odds: New York Knicks -4.5 -- Over/Under: 207 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat pay a visit to the New York Knicks in Game 1 at Madison Square Garden on Sunday afternoon.

The Miami Heat are coming into this game with plenty of momentum after taking down the first-seeded Bucks in a five-game series in the first round. Jimmy Butler led the way with averages of 37.6 points, 6.0 rebounds 4.8 assists and 1.8 steals per game, Bam Adebayo averaged 17.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 5.0 assists per game while Gabe Vincent averaged 13.0 points and 5.0 assists per game. As a team, the Heat are averaging 124 points per game, while shooting 51.9 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from the 3-point line. Tyler Herro was expected to play a big role in these playoffs, but he is expected to miss at least another four weeks following surgery on his right hand.

Meanwhile, the New York Knicks will be feeling pretty good about themselves after making light work of the Cavaliers in a five-game series win in the first round. Jalen Brunson has been leading the way with averages of 24.0 points, 4.2 rebounds and 4.8 assists per game, RJ Barrett is averaging 17.4 points and 2.8 assists per game while Julius Randle is averaging 14.4 points and 6.4 rebounds per game. As a team, the Knicks are scoring 99.6 points per game, while shooting 43.0 percent shooting from the field and 28.8 percent from the 3-point line, but their success so far has been all about their defense as they kept the Cavaliers in check which meant that they didn’t need much scoring from Randle who has yet to hit his stride in these playoffs.

Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 37-17 ATS in their last 54 games playing on three or more days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. The Knicks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games, 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games against a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Head to head, the under is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings in New York, the Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings overall and the Heat are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in New York.

The Heat are still missing Victor Oladipo and Tyler Herro, while the Knicks are keeping eyes on Quentin Grimes and Julius Randle who are both listed as questionable. The Heat were really impressive in the way they dispatched of the Bucks in the first round, especially Butler who has taken his game to another level. The Knicks weren’t quite as impressive in their win over the Cavaliers, but they’ve been defending well and they hold the edge in this matchup after winning the regular season series by 3-1. It’s hard to split these two teams at the moment, but the Heat are 11-5 ATS in the last 16 meetings in New York and I think that trend continues here as the Heat draw first blood in this series.

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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