Heat vs Bucks Prediction - NBA Picks 4/26/23

Milwaukee Bucks (59-27) vs Miami Heat (48-40)

Game Info: Wednesday, April 26, 2023 at 9:30 pm (Fiserv Forum)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks -11 -- Over/Under: 219 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks meet Wednesday in Game 5 of the NBA East First Round Playoffs at the Fiserv Forum. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

The Miami Heat are averaging 123 points on 54 percent shooting and allowing 117 points on 47.8 percent shooting. Jimmy Butler is averaging 36.5 points and 5.5 rebounds, while Bam Adebayo is averaging 16.8 points and 8.3 rebounds. Caleb Martin is the third double-digit scorer and Duncan Robinson is grabbing 3.3 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 47.6 percent from beyond the arc and 76.7 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 37 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42 rebounds per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 117 points on 47.8 percent shooting and allowing 123 points on 54 percent shooting. Khris Middleton is averaging 21.5 points and 6.5 rebounds, while Brook Lopez is averaging 19.3 points and 5.5 rebounds. Jrue Holiday is the third double-digit scorer and Giannis Antetokounmpo is grabbing 6.5 rebounds. The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting 37 percent from beyond the arc and 77.4 percent from the free throw line. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 47.6 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41.5 rebounds per game.

The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 1 days rest and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The over is 16-5 in Heat last 21 overall. The over is 6-0 in Bucks last 6 overall. The Heat are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings in Milwaukee and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

The Milwaukee Bucks are getting the benefit of the doubt because they're at home, facing elimination, and were the betting favorites to win the title before the playoffs started. There's no way the Bucks can go out like this at home. However, that doesn't mean you just make the Bucks ridiculous favorites. Double-digit points?! This will be the first time since January 2022 where the Heat have been double-digit underdogs. I'm just not buying it. The Bucks are 6-9 ATS as double-digit favorites this season and Antetokounmpo clearly isn't 100 percent as he's having issues sitting for long periods and has to get messages during the game. Give me the boatload of points with the Heat.

Randy’s Pick Miami Heat +11

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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