Bucks vs Heat Prediction - NBA Picks 4/24/23

Miami Heat (47-40) vs Milwaukee Bucks (59-26)

Game Info: Monday, April 24, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Kaseya Center)

Betting Odds: Miami Heat +5.5 -- Over/Under: 218.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat duke it out in a pivotal Game 4 at the Kaseya Center on Monday night.

The Milwaukee Bucks will be eager to bounce back in this one after getting scorched by the Heat in a 121-99 loss in Game 3 on Saturday to fall behind in the series again. Khris Middleton led the team in scoring with 23 points and six assists, Jrue Holiday added 19 points while Grayson Allen chipped in with 14 points. As a team, the Bucks shot 44 percent from the field and 15 of 39 from the 3-point line as they got off to a poor start and scored just 21 points in the first quarter to fall behind right away and they never looked threatening as they got outscored in every quarter. The Bucks dominated Game 2 to square up the series, but they didn’t come out with the same level of urgency and were always playing from behind in this one with Bobby Portis scoring just nine points and Brook Lopez finishing with just six points.  

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat needed to come out swinging after getting routed in their last game and they did just that as they blew past the Bucks with ease in Game 3 on Saturday. Jimmy Butler led the way with 30 points, five rebounds and four assists, Duncan Robinson added 20 points on seven of nine shooting while Kyle Lowry chipped in with 15 points off the bench. As a team, the Heat shot 53 percent from the field and 16 of 33 from the 3-point line as they jumped all over the Bucks from the start and never looked in danger after exploding for 37 points in the second quarter. Butler was obviously the best player for the Heat, but it wasn’t just a one-man show as the Heat had seven players finish in double figures in scoring.

Looking at the betting trends, the Bucks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team above .600 and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a win of more than 10 points.

Head to head, the over is 5-0 in the last five meetings overall and the Bucks are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.

The Bucks could again be missing Giannis Antetokounmpo for this one, while the Heat are missing Tyler Herro and probably Victor Oladipo for this game. The Bucks were able to pull off the big win in Game 2 without Antetokounmpo, but they couldn’t replicate that effort on Saturday which means that they need to win this one to avoid falling into a 3-1 series deficit. Be sure to check the lineups before tipoff, but this series looks like it going to seven games and I think the Bucks can square things up with a better game from Lopez or Portis in this spot.

Peter’s Pick Milwaukee -5.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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