Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction - NBA Picks 4/16/23

The Minnesota Timberwolves had to bounce back after losing to the Lakers on Tuesday and they did just that by blowing past the Thunder in a dominant 120-95 home win in Friday's play-in game. Karl-Anthony Towns led the team with 28 points, 11 rebounds and three blocks on 11 of 16 shooting, Rudy Gobert added 21 points with 10 rebounds while Anthony Edwards chipped in with 19 points, 10 rebounds and six assists. As a team, the Timberwolves shot 51 percent from the field and 13 of 32 from the 3-point line as they poured in 33 points in the second quarter to take control of the game, before they dominated the second half by 63-48 to make it a complete blowout in the end and earn their ticket to the NBA playoffs. 

Meanwhile, the Denver Nuggets started the season as the hottest team in the league, but they stumbled their way into the playoffs, losing five of their last seven games of the regular season to finish with a 53-29 overall record. Nikola Jokic led the team with averages of 24.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists per game, Jamal Murray averaged 20.0 points and 6.2 assists per game, Michael Porter Jr averaged 17.4 points per game while Aaron Gordon averaged 16.3 points per game. As a team, the Nuggets scored 115.8 points per game while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 37.9 percent from the 3-point line. 

Looking at the betting trends, the Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games against a team above .600. The Nuggets are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 home games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record. 

Head to head, the over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings overall, the Timberwolves are 24-7 ATS in the last 31 meetings in Denver and the Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings overall. 

The Timberwolves could be shorthanded here as Rudy Gobert and Jaylen Nowell are both listed as questionable, while the Nuggets should be at full health for this matchup. The Nuggets must be low on confidence as they stumbled their way towards the playoffs, but they are well-rested and will like their chances against the Timberwolves who could be missing a couple key players. It's tempting to take the Timberwolves with the points, but the Nuggets just can't afford to start the series with a loss with all the advantages they have, so I'm backing the Nuggets to get the job done.