Heat vs Bucks Prediction - NBA Picks 4/16/23

Milwaukee Bucks (58-24) vs Miami Heat (45-39)

Game Info: Sunday, April 16, 2023 at 5:30 pm (Fiserv Forum)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks -9.5 -- Over/Under: 219 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat invade the Fiserv Forum to do battle with the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1 on Sunday night.
The Miami Heat have had to work hard to earn their spot in the playoffs, but they will be full of confidence coming into this one after taking down the Bulls in a 102-91 win in Friday's play-in game. Jimmy Butler led the team with 31 points on 11 of 24 shooting, Max Strus provided drained seven 3-pointers to finish with 31 points on eight of 16 shooting while Tyler Herro chipped in with 12 points but no other player finished in double figures in scoring. As a team, the Heat shot 41 percent from the field and 10 of 30 from the 3-point line as they wasted an early lead and fell behind by six points midway through the fourth quarter, before they closed the final 7:30 on a 27-10 run to put the Bulls away and book their ticket to the playoffs. 
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks were probably the most consistent team in the league all season as they never dropped their standards despite dealing with injuries all season. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team with averages of 31.1 points, 11.8 rebounds and 5.7 assists per game, Jrue Holiday averaged 19.3 points and 7.4 assists per game, Brook Lopez averaged 15.9 points and 6.7 rebounds per game while Khris Middleton averaged 15.1 points and 4.9 assists per game. As a team, the Bucks scored 11639 points per game, while shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 36.8 percent from the 3-point line.
Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games, 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win of more than 10 points and 16-33-2 ATS in their last 51 games following a win. The Bucks are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games and 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss. 
Head to head, the over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Milwaukee and the Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings in Milwaukee. 
The Heat could be shorthanded for this one as Kyle Lowry and Gabe Vincent are both questionable, while the Bucks don't have a single player listed on the injury report. The Heat did it the hard way, but they were able to get it done against the Bulls to earn their spot in these playoffs. However, the Bucks have been one of the most consistent teams all season, they're at full health and they are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games. The line is certainly hefty for a Heat team that was able to split the season series at 2-2, but I'm backing the Bucks to draw first blood with a big win at home.

Peter’s Pick Milwaukee -9.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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