Nuggets at Heat Prediction - NBA Picks 2/13/23

Miami Heat (32-25) vs Denver Nuggets (39-18)

Game Info: Monday, February 13, 2023 at 7:30 pm (Miami-Dade Arena)

Betting Odds: Miami Heat -1.5 -- Over/Under: 224 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Denver Nuggets pay a visit to the Miami Heat the FTX Arena on Monday night.

The Denver Nuggets have been in fine form as they’ve won five of their last seven games overall and they will be eager to stay hot after taking down the Hornets in a 119-105 road win on Saturday. Nikola Jokic led the team with a triple-double of 30 points with 16 rebounds and 10 assists, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope added 15 points while Bruce Brown and Michael Porter Jr each scored 14 points. As a team, the Nuggets shot 50 percent from the field and just five of 23 from the 3-point line as they struggled to match the intensity of the Hornets at the start and quickly found themselves trailing by 15 points, but they never panicked and dominated from the second quarter onwards to make it look easy in the end.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been in great shape as they’ve won seven of their last 10 games overall and they will be aiming for a fourth straight victory after outlasting the Magic in a 107-103 overtime road win on Saturday. Tyler Hero led the team with 23 points on 10 of 23 shooting, Jimmy Butler added 22 points with seven rebounds and six assists while Gabe Vincent provided 20 points on six of 12 shooting. As a team, the Heat shot 43 percent from the field and 12 of 39 from the 3-point line as they got off to a slow start, scoring just 19 points in the first quarter to fall behind by as many as 17 points, before they rallied back to force overtime where they held the Magic to just six points.

Looking at the betting trends, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a winning record, 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a home record above .600 and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, 0-5 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a losing road record and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Head to head, the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall, the Nuggets are 24-9 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall and the Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in Miami.

The Nuggets could be shorthanded again as Aaron Gordon and Jamal Murray are both listed as questionable, while the Heat are again missing Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson, while Tyler Herro is listed as questionable. Both teams are coming into this meeting with plenty of momentum and both teams are missing some key players. This is certainly a game where you want to check the lineups before tipoff as Gordon and Murray would have a big impact on the result of this one, but I’ll stick with the Nuggets who represent decent value as underdogs as they are 24-9 ATS in the last 33 meetings overall.

Peter’s Pick Denver +1.5

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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