Boston Celtics at Miami Heat - 5/29/22 NBA Picks and Prediction

Miami Heat (64-35) vs Boston Celtics (62-37)

Game Info: Sunday, May 29, 2022 at 8:30 pm (FTX Arena)

Betting Odds: Miami Heat +2.5 -- Over/Under: 199 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Miami Heat play host to the Boston Celtics in a dramatic Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals at the FTX Arena on Sunday.

The Boston Celtics will be hoping to bounce back and book their ticket to the NBA Finals after coming up short against the Heat in a 111-103 loss in Game 6 on Friday. Jayson Tatum led the team with 30 points, nine rebounds and four assists, Derrick White added 22 points and five assists off the bench, Jalen Brown added 20 points with six rebounds and five assists while Marcus Smart chipped in with 14 points. As a team, the Celtics shot 44 percent from the field and 11 of 33 from the 3-point line as they got off to a terrible start, managing just 22 points in the first quarter to trail going into halftime and things only got worse in the third quarter where they fell behind by as many as 13 points. Al Horford had a night to forget as he finished with just three points on one of eight shooting, Tatum committed a total of seven turnovers, while Smart shot just four of 15 from the field and one of nine from the 3-point line.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat needed to come out swinging with their season on the line and they did just that as they jumped all over the Celtics on Friday to force a Game 7. Jimmy Butler led from the front with a playoff career-high 47 points with nine rebounds, eight assists and four steals, Kyle Lowry added 18 points with 10 assists before fouling out while Max Strus chipped in with 13 points. As a team, the Heat shot 46 percent from the field and 15 of 35 from the 3-point line as they squandered a 12-point lead in the third quarter, before they closed the final 4:21 on a 17-6 run to escape with the crucial win. Butler was clearly the best player on the floor as he carried the offense, but the Heat deserve plenty of credit on the defensive end as they forced the duo of Brown and Tatum to a combined 13 turnovers.

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Looking at the betting trends, the Celtics are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite, 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 road games and 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. The Heat are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games against a team above .600 and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Head to head, the over is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings overall and the Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.

The Celtics won three of four games in the series to earn the chance to close out the series at home, but they were always fighting an uphill battle after suffering a slow start in Game 6. The Heat were able to get the crucial win thanks to a monster game from Butler, but it’ll take everyone else stepping up if they want to book their tickets to the NBA Finals. The injury cloud hanging over Tyler Herro really hurts the Heat, so I can see why the Celtics have opened as favorites in this spot. However, you battle all season to earn home-court advantage in this situation and I think it pays off as the Heat get the win behind better production from their role players.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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