Miami Heat at Boston Celtics - 5/21/22 NBA Picks and Prediction

Boston Celtics (60-35) vs Miami Heat (62-33)

Game Info: Saturday, May 21, 2022 at 8:30 pm (TD Garden)

Betting Odds: Boston Celtics -6.5 -- Over/Under: 208.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics duke it out in a pivotal Game 3 at the TD Garden on Saturday night.

The Miami Heat will be hoping to bounce back after getting blown out by the Celtics in a 127-102 loss in Game 2 on Thursday night. Jimmy Butler led the way with 29 points on 11 of 18 shooting, Gabe Vincent and Victor Oladipo each scored 14 points while Tyler Herro chipped in with just 11 points off the bench. As a team, the Heat shot just 44 percent from the field and 10 of 34 from the 3-point line, but they weren't at their usual best on the defensive end and were always fighting an uphill battle after leaking 70 points in the first half. The effort was there for the most part, but every time they lost focus, they got burned by the Celtics who were allowed to shoot 50 percent from the 3-point line. The role players just didn't step up on offense as Bam Adebayo contributed just six points and nine rebounds, while Max Strus finished with just six points on two of seven shooting. 

Meanwhile, the Boston Celtics needed to come out swinging after getting routed in the series opener and now they have all the momentum after squaring up the series on Thursday. Jayson Tatum led the team with 27 points and five assists on eight of 13 shooting, Marcus Smart racked up 24 points with nine rebounds and 12 assists, while Jaylen Brown chipped in with 24 points and eight rebounds. As a team, the Celtics shot 51 percent from the field and a sizzling 20 of 40 from the 3-point line as they got hot from the perimeter early and never looked in danger after taking a 25-point lead going into halftime. The Celtics were able to get Al Horford and Marcus Smart back in the lineup and it really gave them a boost in the first half, but the biggest difference between the teams was the 3-point shooting and the Celtics were over 50 percent going into the fourth quarter. 

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Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against a team with a winning record and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games overall. The Celtics are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games against a team with a winning record and 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. 

Head to head, the over is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings overall and the Heat are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston. 

The Heat were able to handle the Celtics in Game 1 when they were shorthanded, but the return of Horford and DPOY Marcus Smart really freed Tatum and Brown in Game 2. The Heat are still a little banged up as they are still keeping an eye on Kyle Lowry's hamstring injury, but they'd really love him back in the lineup to bolster their 3-point shooting which left them on Thursday. The role players for the Celtics really stepped up to steal home-court advantage and they'll be needed again in this one, but the Heat looked shell-shocked against the Celtics full lineup which I don't expect to happen again. It's tempting to take the Celtics to run away with it at home as they've gotten off to fast starts in both games so far in this series, but I expect the Heat to make adjustments and take this one right down to the wire. The Heat are 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Boston and I think that trend continues here.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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