Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks - 5/24/21 NBA Picks and Prediction

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks - 5/24/21 NBA Picks and Prediction Photo by Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Milwaukee Bucks (47-26) vs Miami Heat (40-33)

Game Info: Monday, May 24, 2021 at 7:30 pm (Fiserv Forum)

Betting Odds: Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 -- Over/Under: 223.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

The Miami Heat will be looking to level the series against the Milwaukee Bucks in Game 2 at the Fiserv Forum on Monday night.

The Miami Heat have been in great shape as they won eight of their final 10 games of the regular season, before getting stopped in their tracks by the Bucks in a 109-107 overtime loss in Game 1. Goran Dragic led the team in scoring with 25 points on 10 of 17 shooting off the bench, Duncan Robinson drained seven 3-pointers on his way to 24 points, Jimmy Butler scored 17 points with 10 rebounds and eight assists while Bam Adebayo chipped in with nine points, 12 rebounds and five assists. As a team, the Heat shot just 36 percent from the field and 20 of 50 from the 3-point line as they fought hard and hung with the Bucks in a close contest right until the final seconds where the Bucks’ Khris Middleton stole the game with a clutch shot with just 0.5 seconds left on the clock in overtime. Jimmy Butler had a rough shooting night as he made just four of 22 from the field while Tyler Herro had a night to forget as he scored just 10 points on two of 10 shooting off the bench.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks will be feeling pretty good about themselves after drawing first blood against the Heat in a thrilling win in Game 1. Khris Middleton led the team with 27 points, six rebounds and six assists, Giannis Antetokounmpo added 26 points with 18 rebounds and five assists, Jrue Holiday scored 20 points with 11 rebounds while Brook Lopez chipped in with 18 points. As a team, the Bucks shot just 43 percent from the field and a miserly five of 31 from the 3-point line, but where they really made their mark was in the paint where they outscored the Heat by 56-24 while winning the battle of the boards by 64-51.No bench player scored more than eight points and no player made more than one 3-pointer other than Middleton who was the hero for the night.

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Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five Conference Quarterfinals games, 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a winning record and 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.

Head to head, the under is 4-1 in the last five meetings overall and the Heat are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Milwaukee.

The Heat were able to hang with the Bucks from start to finish despite some cold-shooting performances from two of their best players in Butler and Herro which will give them plenty of confidence going into Game 2. The Bucks were far from their best in the series opener, but they will be delighted that they were still able to get the job done thanks to a big shot from Middleton in the final seconds. I’m expecting another close contest in this one, but with better shooting performances from Butler and Herro, I think the Heat can pull off the upset in this one.

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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