Dixie Vodka 400- 6/14/20 Driver vs. Driver Matchups and Odds
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Dixie Vodka 400
6/14/2020 3:30pm est
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We head down to Homestead-Miami Speedway for the Dixie Vodka 400. Homestead is a 1.5 mile oval with progressive banking. Usually Homestead is the last race of the year, but now moving forward it will not be. We should see a less aggressive race at Homestead this summer, compared to what we usually see at the end of the year. Last week we went 3 and 1 for +2.08 units, and we are up 5.2 units on the year with a record of 24 and 16.
Here are a few matchups to consider for the Dixie Vodka 400.
Kevin Harvick -115 vs. Martin Truex Jr. -112
Harvick and Truex have split this match up 2 and 2 over the last 2 races at Homestead and also the 2 races at Darlington in 2020. Truex edged out Harvick at Homestead in 2019 as well as 2018. Truex has an average finish of 2nd at Homestead in the last 2 races, while Harvick has an average finish of 3.5 in the same 2 races. In a close matchup, I will take Truex over Harvick on Sunday at Homestead.
Jeff’s Pick: Martin Truex Jr. -112
Tyler Reddick -110 vs. Aric Amirola -118
Reddick and Amirola have not faced each other at Homestead yet, but Reddick has won 5 of 6 against Aric in 2020 at comparable tracks. Reddick finished ahead of Aric at Vegas, both Darlington races, the Coke 600 at Charlotte, and at Atlanta last Sunday. Reddick has been the most impressive of the stout rookie class this season. Amirola has struggled as of late with a lot of issues not in his control. I feel Reddick can prevail here again against Amirola on Sunday.
Jeff’s Pick: Tyler Reddick -110
Matt DiBenedetto. -110 vs. Matt Kenseth -118
Matt DiBenedetto has gone 3 and 2 vs. Kenseth this year at comparable tracks to Homestead. DiBenedetto won the matchups at the 2nd Darlington race, and both races at Charlotte. Kenseth edged out DiBenedetto in the first Darlington race, as well as last weekend at the Atlanta Motor Speedway. DiBenedetto has the better average driver rating of 78.3 compared to Kenseth’s average driver rating of 67.1 over the last 6 Cup races here in 2020. I will take Matt DiBenedetto over Kenseth on Sunday.
Jeff’s Pick: Matt DiBenedetto -110
Cole Custer -125 vs. Chris Buescher -106
Custer and Chris have not raced against each in the NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead, so again we will need to look at 2020 comparable tracks. Cole and Chris have split matchups 3 and 3 at Las Vegas, both Darlington races, both Charlotte races, and Custer finished ahead of Chris at Atlanta last Sunday. In another close matchup, I simply can’t ignore the -106 on Buescher.
Jeff’s Pick: Chris Buescher -106