UFC on ESPN 56 Picks - Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento Prediction

Rodrigo Nasimento vs Derrick Lewis

Game Info: Saturday, May 11th at 7:00 PM ET

Betting Odds: Lewis -162 / Nascimento +136 -- Over/Under: 1.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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In this article, we will formulate a Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento prediction for this UFC on ESPN 56 showdown on Saturday, May 11th at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis, Missouri. We will take a look at: 

- Derrick Lewis’s recent form and performance

-Rodrigo Nascimento’s recent form and performance

-A summary that ties it all together and produces a favorable betting outcome for today’s fight between Rodrigo Nascimento vs Derrick Lewis. 

Derrick Lewis Betting Preview

Derrick Lewis comes into this game with a 27-12 record overall and he has lost four of the last five games. Even though he has lost four of five, he is someone who can get the knockout at any time. Lewis's last fight came against Jailton Almeida in November of 2023 and it was a unanimous decision loss. He was outstruck 38-20 and he was taken down six times in that fight. Two fights ago it was only 33 seconds into the fight that he was able to beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima by knockout. Lewis is averaging 2.43 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.48 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.53 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 26 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 53 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. 

Rodrigo Nascimento Betting Preview

Rodrigo Nascimento comes into this fight with an 11-1 record overall and he has won three fights in a row. Nascimento’s last fight came against Don’Tale Mayes and he was actually outstruck 79-70 but it was still enough for the unanimous decision victory. The previous two decisions were split-decision victories. He is averaging 4.31 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.76 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.20 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 33 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 77 percent of his takedown attempts. In this fight, he needs to avoid the power of Lewis early.

Rodrigo Nascimento vs Derrick Lewis Betting Prediction

I don’t have a great feeling on who is going to win this fight, but I do really like the value of the under 1.5 rounds. Lewis is going to hunt the knockout early but he doesn’t get that, he’s going to be knocked out. Lewis has had his chin tested as of late, and it hasn’t lived up to the tests. One of these fighters is going to get the knockout, and the knockout is going to happen early. Back under 1.5 rounds to cash here.

Shane’s Pick Under 1.5 Rounds

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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