UFC 301 Picks & Odds Breakdown

UFC 301

Game Info: Saturday, May 4th at 10:00 PM ET

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UFC 301 takes place on Saturday night at the Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, and this is an exciting card on paper. Let’s take a look at a free play on each of the main card fights to make your Saturday a winning one.

Alexandre Pantoja vs Steve Erceg 

Pantoja -192 / Erceg +160 // Total Rounds: 3.5 

Alexandre Pantoja is going to be putting his flyweight belt on the line when he faces off against Steve Erceg on Saturday night. Pantoja is a UFC veteran, while Erceg has only fought three times inside the octagon but is still getting a title shot here. Ercerg is going into a hostile environment, but he’s still going to get the job done here. Pantoja sometimes gets sloppy, and Ercerg is a superb striker. Ercerg is an elite boxer, and he’s going to use that to his advantage here. Ercerg is going to pull the upset. Pick Erceg on the money line. 

Jonathan Martinez vs Jose Aldo

Martinez -148 / Aldo +128 // Total Rounds: 2.5

Jose Aldo returns to the octagon for the first time since he retired after UFC 278. He has had a few boxing matches since that point, but not inside the octagon. Jonathan Martinez is ranked 13th in the division and he should have confidence. At times, Martinez has had weight issues, and he’s also been a head case at times. Aldo is going to feed off the crowd and he’s a live dog here. It’s hard to bet big on a fighter who has been off a few years, but if you're betting on this one, the play is with Aldo. Back Aldo on the money line. 

Anthony Smith vs Vitor Petrino 

Smith +475 / Petrino -575 // Total Rounds: 1.5

Anthony Smith is still an exciting fighter, but he hasn’t found a ton of success as of late. Smith has lost three of his last four fights, and two of those fights have been a stoppage. Petrino has a perfect 11-0 record, and this feels like the UFC is trying to set him up for a big win here. Petrino is a strong fighter, and he is also very conditioned, something that is going to come in handy here. Seven times, Petrino has won by knockout, and Smith has been prone to that as of late. Petrino is going to use leg kicks to his advantage, and he’s going to find a way to get the finish here. Back Petrino by finish here. 

Michel Pereira vs Ihor Potieria 

Pereira -650 / Potieria +470 // Total Rounds: 1.5

Michael Pereira has moved up a weight class, but he still should have confidence heading into this fight. He’s an elite kicker, and he’s going to use his kicks to his advantage here. He also is excellent with his movement, and he’s going to pick up his spots here. Pereira is going to use the kicks and the movement, and Ptieria is going to have no answer here. Back Periera to win this fight by knockout. 

Paul Craig vs Caio Borralho 

Borralho -675 / Craig +490 // Total Rounds: 1.5

Caio Borralho sits with a 13 fight win streak and has gone 5-0 in the UFC, but this is a big step-up in competition Craig has lost three of his last four fights, but he’s been fighting against some very good competition. This really is a stay away fight for me, but if you want to bet it, Craig is the guy. This is a big step-up in competition, and Craigh could give him some trouble. Bet it small, but Craig is the play here if you want to bet it. 

Shane’s Pick Steve Erceg ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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