UFC Fight Night 238 Picks & Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night 238

UFC: Saturday, March 2nd at 4:00 PM ET

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UFC Fight Night 238 takes place on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. This fight has an early start with the prelims kicking off at 130 Eastern, and the main event will start at 4 PM. UFC 299 takes place next weekend, but this is still a card that looks like it could have a couple of banger matchups. Below you will find a free pick for each of the main card fights. 

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev

Gaziev -148 / Rozenstruik +124 // Total Rounds: Over 1.5 +140

The main event of UFC Fight Night 238 features a fight that could be one of those bangers. Rozenstruik has struggled a bit heading into this fight in terms of getting wins, but he has faced some stiff competition. His last fight came against Jailton Almedia and it was late in the round round that he was submitted by a rear naked choke. Gaziev has a perfect 12-0 record, but this is a big step up in competition. In December, Gaziev faced off against Martin Buday and he was able to secure the knockout early in the first round. If Gaziev wins this fight, there will be some buzz about how he could be a title contender down the road. I am concerned about Gaziev and the step up in competition. Gaziev can leave himself open for shots, and Rozenstruik is going to take advantage of that. The oddsmakers are really overlooking Rozenstruik here. Back Rozentruik +124. 

Vitor Petrino vs Tyson Pedro

Petrino –298 / Pedro +240 // Total Rounds: Over 1.5 -135

The co-main event will be a light heavyweight battle between Vitor Petrino and Tyson Pedro.  At one point Tyson Pedro was considered someone who might be a serious title contender but a terrible injury really shot down any chance of that happening. Petrino comes into this fight with a perfect 10-0 record and since coming into the UFC he has won three fights. Two of the three fights for Petrino have gone into the third round, and I expect where this fight will end up. He’s a smart fighter and does a good job of staying out of trouble. He is fine grinding out a fight, and that’s what he will do here. Back the over -1.5 rounds at -135. 

Alex Perez vs Muhammad Mokaev 

Perez +285 / Mokaev -298 // Total Rounds: Over 2.5 -125

Alex Perez and Muhammad Mokaev face off in a main card flyweight bout. Mokaev is favored in this fight, but he’s actually 8th in the flyweight rankings while Perez is ranked 7th. The last couple of fights, Perez has struggled to keep the fight off the mat, and now he has to face off against a fighter in Mokaev who is elite at getting the fight to the ground. Mokaev is going to get the fight to the ground, and once he’s down there, he’s going to get the finish. He is good with the submissions, but he also can use the ground and pound, if that’s what he feels he needs to do. Back Mokaev to win this fight finish. 

Eryk Anders vs Jamie Pickett

Anders -425 / Pickett +330 // Total Rounds: Over 2.5 -145

Eryk Anders and Jamie Pickett face off in a middleweight bout, and this is quite the head-scratcher. This fight should have been probably closer to the first fight of the night, rather than on the main event. Pickett has lost four fights in a row here, and a loss here could see his time with the UFC being done. On the other side is Anders who has lost three of his last four fights. Anders has knockout power, but there is no chance I am willing to lay -425 with him. Bet this one small, but sprinkle a small bet on Pickett. The +330 is just too much value to pass up. 

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Bekzat Almakhan

Nurmagomedov -1200 / Almakhan +750 // Total Rounds: Over 1.5 -120

Umar Nurmagomedov and Bekzat Almakhan face in a bantamweight bout. Nurmagomedov has a perfect 16-0 record and has gone 4-0 in the UFC. Almakhan has just signed with the UFC and will be making his UFC debut on a nine fight win streak. Numagomedov looks like he could be on the fast track to make a title shot, and this fight is going to be little work. He is going to put Almakhan in a bad position, and once he gets him there, he’s going to finish the fight. Back Nurmagomedov by submission. 

Matt Schnell vs Steve Erceg

Schnell +260 / Erceg -325 // Total Rounds: Over 1.5 -130

Matt Schnell and Steve Erceg face off in a flyweight bout, and this is one of the fights I am most excited for. Schnell has had 12 fights in the UFC, and he has shown some flashes at times, but he also has gotten caught a lot. In each of his six losses in the UFC, he has been finished. Erceg has an 11-1 record overall and he has gone 2-0 since coming into the UFC and each has come by unanimous decision. Schnell has been knocked out plenty, but I am not sure Erceg really has that finish ability, at least not early in the fight. Erceg is going to try and grind out this fight, and Schnell is going to be avoiding the knockout. Back the over 1.5 rounds -130.

Shane’s Pick Rozentruik ML +124

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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