UFC Fight Night 228 Picks - Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Prediction

Mateusz Gamrot vs Rafael Fiziev

UFC: Saturday, September 23rd at 7:00 PM ET

Betting Odds: -- Mateusz Gamrot +130 / Rafael Fiziev -155 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Rafael Fiziev and Mateusz Gamrot face off in a lightweight battle in the main event of UFC Fight Night 228 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Rafael Fiziev vs. Mateusz Gamrot Odds

Rafael Fiziev comes into this game as the favorite sitting at -155 while Mateusz Gamrot is the underdog sitting at +130. The total rounds sits at 4.5 with the over paying out at -130.

Rafael Fiziev Betting Preview

Rafael Fiziev comes into this fight with a 12-2 record overall and he has won six of his last seven fights. His last fight however was the one loss. In March, Fiziev faced off against Justin Gaethje and it was a majority decision defeat. He was outstruck 103-97 and he had one takedown. Fiziev is averaging 5.06 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.17 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.31 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 40 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 90 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. Two fights ago against Rafael Dos Anjos it was early in the 5th round he was able to finish the fight by knockout.

Mateusz Gamrot Betting Preview

Mateusz Gamrot comes into this game with a 22-2 record overall and he has won five of his last six fights. His last fight came against Jalin Turner in March of 2023 and it was a split decision victory. He was actually outstruck 40-29, but he had four takedowns and that was enough for the victory. Gamrot is averaging 3.03 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.23 significant strikes per minute. Gamrot is averaging 4.54 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 31 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 91 percent of his opponents takedown attempts.

Shane’s Free Pick

Fiziev is the favorite in this fight and for good reason. He is a high volume fighter and he’s going to throw plenty of shots here. Gamrot isn’t as much of a volume fighter and he’s not going to hold up here. Fiziev is going to put the pressure on here, and Gamrot is going to fold under the pressure. This is going to be quite the impressive showing from Fiziev and he will get the job done here.