UFC 291 Picks - Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Prediction

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Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje face off on Saturday in the main event of UFC 291 in a lightweight showdown at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. These two guys faced off in 2018, it was Poirier that won by knockout early in the 4th round. 

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Odds

Poirier is a slight favorite sitting at -145 while Gaethje is the underdog sitting at +125. The total sits at 2.5 goals with the over paying out at -140. 

Dustin Poirier Betting Preview

Dustin Poirier comes into this fight with a 29-7 record overall and he has won three of his last four fights. His only loss came against Charles Oliveira two fights ago. Poirier’s last fight came against Michael Chandler and it was two minutes in the third round that he locked in a rear naked choke, and that led to a submission victory. Poirier is averaging 5.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25 significant strikes per minute. In this fight, Poirier needs to watch out for the legs kick. Gaethje hurt him with leg kicks in the first fight, and he needs to do a better job of protecting against that here. 

Justin Gaethje Betting Preview

On the other side of this fight is Justin Gaethje who sits with a 24-4 record overall and he has won two of his last three fights. Two fights ago against Charles Oliveria, it was a little over halfway through the first round that he lost with a rear naked choke. Gaethje faced off against Rafael Fiziev in March of 2023, and that was a majority decision victory. Gaethje is an elite wrestler, but he doesn’t like to use that in the UFC. In his last fight against Poirier, he used his leg kicks but then was caught with a big punch. In this fight he needs to use the leg kicks to his advantage again here. Gaethje is averaging 7.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.66 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.13 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 25 percent of his takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

Gaethje looked good in his first fight against Poirier until he was caught with the punch, but in this fight, he’s not going to get caught like he did. Gaethje is going to continue to use the leg kicks to his advantage, and Poirier is going to be worn down by those. This is going to be a close battle, but it’s going to be those leg kicks that are the difference. Gaethje has too much value here as the underdogs. Back Gaethje on the money line. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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