UFC 291 Picks - Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Prediction

Justin Gaethje vs Duston Poirier

UFC: Saturday, July 29th at 10:00 PM ET

Betting Odds: -- Justin Gaethje +125 / Duston Poirier -145 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: ESPN+/PPV Stream unmatched UFC coverage on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

Dustin Poirier and Justin Gaethje face off on Saturday in the main event of UFC 291 in a lightweight showdown at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah. These two guys faced off in 2018, it was Poirier that won by knockout early in the 4th round. 

Dustin Poirier vs Justin Gaethje Odds

Poirier is a slight favorite sitting at -145 while Gaethje is the underdog sitting at +125. The total sits at 2.5 goals with the over paying out at -140. 

Dustin Poirier Betting Preview

Dustin Poirier comes into this fight with a 29-7 record overall and he has won three of his last four fights. His only loss came against Charles Oliveira two fights ago. Poirier’s last fight came against Michael Chandler and it was two minutes in the third round that he locked in a rear naked choke, and that led to a submission victory. Poirier is averaging 5.51 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.25 significant strikes per minute. In this fight, Poirier needs to watch out for the legs kick. Gaethje hurt him with leg kicks in the first fight, and he needs to do a better job of protecting against that here. 

Justin Gaethje Betting Preview

On the other side of this fight is Justin Gaethje who sits with a 24-4 record overall and he has won two of his last three fights. Two fights ago against Charles Oliveria, it was a little over halfway through the first round that he lost with a rear naked choke. Gaethje faced off against Rafael Fiziev in March of 2023, and that was a majority decision victory. Gaethje is an elite wrestler, but he doesn’t like to use that in the UFC. In his last fight against Poirier, he used his leg kicks but then was caught with a big punch. In this fight he needs to use the leg kicks to his advantage again here. Gaethje is averaging 7.38 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.66 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.13 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 25 percent of his takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

Gaethje looked good in his first fight against Poirier until he was caught with the punch, but in this fight, he’s not going to get caught like he did. Gaethje is going to continue to use the leg kicks to his advantage, and Poirier is going to be worn down by those. This is going to be a close battle, but it’s going to be those leg kicks that are the difference. Gaethje has too much value here as the underdogs. Back Gaethje on the money line. 

Shane’s Pick Justin Gaethje ML +125

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

MLB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Sunday 7/21/24 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

18+ Has gambling become a problem for you? Call the National Problem Gambling Hotline.
1-800-522-4700 | ncpgambling.org

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.