UFC 282: Jan Blachowicz vs. Magomed Ankalaev Picks and Predictions

Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz

UFC: Saturday December 10th at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Magomed Ankalaev -445 / Jan Blachowicz +280 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Jan Blachowicz and Magomed Ankalaev face off on Saturday for the Light Heavyweight title at UFC 282 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Jan Blachowicz comes into this fight with a 29-9 record overall and he has won six of his last seven fights. Blachowicz had won two titles in a row before losing against Glover Teixeria in October of 2021. In his last fight against Aleksander Rakic in May of 2022 and it was in the third round that he was able to finish the fight by knockout. At the time of the knockout he had struck Rakic 31-27. Blachowicz is averaging 3.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.77 significant strikes per minute. He is also averaging 1.08 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 53 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 66 percent of his takedeown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Magomed Ankalaev who sits with an 18-1 record. He lost his first fight inside the UFC and since that point he has won nine fights in a row. In July of 2022 he faced off against Anthony Smith and it was midway through the second round that he finished the fight by knockout. In the three previous fights he had won by unanimous decision. He is averaging 3.64 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.14 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.94 takedowns every 15 minutes and he is successful on 33 percent of his takedown attempts. This is the biggest fight of his career, but he thinks he is ready to take home the belt. 

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Nine of the last ten wins by Blachowicz have clome at plus money, and he is again getting no respect heading into this fight. Blachowicz is the better fighter on the feet, and he is going to keep that here. I’m not sold that Ankalaev is as good as others think, and he’s not going to get the job done here. Blachowicz might not get the finish, but he’s going to secure the victory. Back Blachowicz on the money line. 

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Shane’s Pick Jan Blachowicz ML +280

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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