UFC on ESPN 42: Stephen Thompson vs. Kevin Holland Picks and Predictions

Kevin Holland vs. Stephen Thompson

UFC: Saturday, December 3rd at 10:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Kevin Holland -180 / Stephen Thompson +150 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Stephen Thompson and Kevin Holland face off on Saturday in a welterweight showdown in the main event of UFC on ESPN 42 at the Amway Center in Orlando. 

Stephen “Wonderboy” Thompson is one of the more popular fighters in the UFC and he comes into this game with a 16-6-1 record overall. This is a big fight for Thompson though as he has lost two fights in a row. Thompson’s last fight came against Belal Muhammad in December of 2021, and he really struggled. He was outstruck 58-19 and was also taken down seven times. His last win came back in December of 2020 against Geoff Neal and that was a unanimous decision victory. Thompson is averaging 3.90 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.81 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.29 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 41 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 63 percent of his takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is Kevin Holland who sits with a 23-8 record overall and he had won two fights in a row before losing his last fight. Holland’s last fight came against Khamzat Chimaev and there were no significant strikes thrown in the match by either fighter. 2 minutes and 13 seconds into the fight he lost by a D’Arce Choke. Holland is averaging 3.85 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.38 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 0.83 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 43 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 50 percent of his takedown attempts. 

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Thompson has struggled against the wrestlers, but he shouldn’t have to worry about that too much here. Thompson does a great job of avoiding the big punches on the feet, and he’s going to find success here. Look for Thompson to avoid the power of Holland, and he’s going to pick apart Holland on the feet. Back Thompson on the money line. 

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Shane’s Pick Stephen Thompson ML +150

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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