UFC on ESPN 42: Bryan Baberena vs. Rafael dos Anjos Picks and Predictions

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Bryan Barberena and Rafael dos Anjos face off on Saturday in a welterweight showdown in the co-main event of UFC on ESPN 42 at the Amway Center in Orlando. 

Bryan Barberena comes into this fight with an 18-8 record overall and he has won three fights in a row. In his last fight against Robbie Lawler in July, it was late in the second round that he was able to win the fight by knockout. Barberena was outstriking Lawler 147-81 when he finished the fight. Two fights ago against Matt Brwon he was able to win by split decision. Barberena is averaging 6.11 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 5.01 significant strikes per minute. He usually wants to keep the fight on the feet and is averaging 0.16 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is successful on 25 percent of his takedown attempts and stops 55 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. He is also averaging 0.3 submission attempts every 15 minutes. 

Rafael dos Anjos comes into this fight with a 31-14 record overall but he is coming off a loss in his last fight. dos Anjos last fight came against Rafael Fiziev in July and it was early in the 5th round that he was knocked out. He was outstruck 64-54, but he did have two takedowns in that fight. Before that last loss, he had won two fights in a row by decision. dos Anjos is averaging 3.58 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.23 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.96 takedowns every 15 minutes but is only successful on 34 percent of his takedown attempts. He is also stopping 59 percent of his takedown attempts. dos Anjos is averaging 0.5 submission attempts every 15 minutes.

dos Anjos is a big favorite in this fight, and for good reason, he is the much better fighter here. Barberena is a solid fighter and is a warrior that does a good job of staying in fights, but I just don’t think he’s talented enough to win this fight. Barberena will find a way to not get finished, but dos Anjos will get the job done. Back dos Anjos by decision. 

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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