UFC Fight Night 215: Derrick Lewis vs. Sergey Spivak Picks and Predictions

Sergey Spivak vs. Derrick Lewis

UFC: Saturday, October 19th at 4:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Sergey Spivak -200 / Derrick Lewis +170 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivak face off on Saturday in a heavyweight showdown in the main event of UFC Fight Night 215 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Derrick Lewis comes into this fight with a 26-10 record overall but he has lost three of his last four fights. Lewis last fight came against Sergei Pavlovich on July 30th, and it was only 55 seconds into the fight that he was knocked out. His last win came on December 18th against Chris Daukaus in December of 2021. It was late in the first round that his power overpowered Daukaus and he won by knockout. Each of Lewis's last three wins have been by knockout. Lewis is averaging 2.57 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.57 significant strikes per minute. Lewis is successful on 26 percent of his takedown attempts and he stops 55 percent of his opponent's takedown attempts. Even when Lewis looks like he’s out of a fight, he has one-punch knockout power. 

Sergey Spivak comes into this game with a 15-3 record overall and he has won two games in a row. Spivac’s last fight came against Augusto Sakai in August of 2022 and it was in the second round that he won by knockout. He was outstriking Sakai 33-8 and he had six takedowns in that fight. Spivak is averaging 3.79 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.96 significant strikes per minute. Spivak is averaging 4.09 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 63 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 70 percent of his takedown attempts. 

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Lewis can knock out anyone at any time, but I think Spivak is going to come into this one with a good game plan. Spivak is going to get the fight to the ground, and once he gets there he is going to wear down Lewis. I’m not sure he will get the finish but this is a pretty solid pick, even if the odds are a bit high. Back Spivak on the money line. If you want to bet Spivak to finish I think he does get that done here, but I will play it safe and take Spivak on the money line.

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Shane’s Pick Sergey Spivak ML

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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