UFC 280: Aljamain Sterling vs. TJ Dillashaw Picks and Predictions

TJ Dillashaw vs. Aljamain Sterling

UFC: Saturday, October 22nd at 2:00 PM ET

The Line: -- TJ Dillashaw +145 / Aljamain Sterling -170 Click Here for the Latest Odds

Where to Watch: PPV Stream unmatched UFC coverage on ESPN+. Sign up now! Advertisement

Aljamain Sterling and TJ Dillashaw face off on Saturday in a bantamweight title bout for the co-main event of UFC 280 at Etihad Arena at Abu Dhabi. Sterling is the Champion while Dillashaw is ranked 2nd. 

Aljamain Sterling comes into this fight with a 21-3 record overall and he has won seven fights in a row. Sterling’s last fight came against Petr Yan in April of 2022 and it was a split-decision victory. Sterling was outstruck 63-62 but he had two takedowns, and that was enough for the victory. Sterling is averaging 4.56 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.24 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.71 takedowns every 15 minutes but is successful on only 21 percent of his takedown attempts. He is also stopping 41 percent of his opponents takedown attempts. 

On the other side of this matchup is TJ Dillashaw who sits with an 18-4 record and he has won five of his last six fights. In Dillashaw’s last fight came against Cory Sandhagen in July of 2021 and that was a split-decision victory. Dillashaw was outstruck 128-110 but had two takedowns and that was enough to secure the split decision victory. Dillashaw is averaging 5.26 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.27 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.63 takedowns every 15 minutes.

Dillashaw is probably the better wrestler here, but that’s the only real advantage that he has. Sterling’s grappling doesn’t get enough attention, and he’s going to find success here with that part of his skill set. Sterling is going to wear down Dillashaw with his takedown attempts and that is going to be the difference here. Back Sterling on the money line to cash. 

Shane’s Pick Aljamain Sterling ML

Get Premium Picks Start Winning Now »
The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

NFL & MLB Best Bets for Today Picks & Predictions Monday 9/25/23 | 7 Picks in 5 Minutes

Credit Guaranteed Packages

Packages with Credit Guarantees automatically give you a credit if the package does not turn a profit—the sum of betting all individual picks. THESE ARE NOT PARLAYS UNLESS OTHERWISE CLEARLY STATED. If a credit guaranteed package does not profit, a credit for its full purchase price is automatically issued after picks are graded and verified.

For example, if you purchase a $39.95 package that doesn’t profit, you’ll get a $39.95 credit towards any future purchase(s) on our site. Credits are usually issued within hours of a game’s conclusion, so please allow a few hours for final verification.

To use your credits, log in to your account and add another package or pass to your cart. Credits will automatically reduce what you owe. Any remaining balance will be settled through our payment system, with any leftover credits available future purchases. Credits do not expire.