UFC Fight Night 211: Yan Xiaonan vs. Mackenzie Dern Picks and Predictions

Yan Xiaonan vs. Mackenzie Dern

UFC: Saturday, October 1st at 7:00 PM ET

The Line: -- Yan Xiaonan +195 / Mackenzie Dern -230 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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Yan Xiaonan and Mackenzie Dern face off on Saturday in a women’s strawweight showdown at UFC Fight Night 211 at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Dern is ranked 5th in the division while Xiaonan is ranked 6th in the division. 

Mackenzie Dern comes into this game with a 12-2 record overall and she picked up a big win in her last fight. Dern faced off against Tecia Torres in her last fight, and she was actually outstruck 76-50, but she controlled the fight with her submission attempts and that led to the split decision victory. Dern is averaging 3.16 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.35 significant strikes per minute. Dern is averaging 0.46 takedowns every 15 minutes but she is only successful on nine percent of her takedown attempts. She is also stopping 40 percent of her opponent's takedown attempts. Dern is a submission artist and she is averaging 2.0 submission attempts every 15 minutes. Dern’s chin has improved as her career has progressed but where she is best is on the mat. 

On the other side of this matchup is Yan Xiaonan who sits with a 15-3 record overall but she has lost two fights in a row. In her last fight against Marina Rodriguez in March of 2022 and she lost by a split decision. She had two takedowns but was outstruck 72-56 and that led to the defeat. Before the two losses she had won six fights in a row and each of those wins were by unanimous decision. Xiaonan is averaging 5.66 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 3.77 significant strikes per minute. She also likes to get to the fight to the ground and is averaging 1.06 takedowns every 15 minutes. She is successful on 66 percent of the takedown attempts and she stops 65 percent of her takedown attempts. 

I don’t think Dern is going to find a whole lot of success getting to the ground and that is going to open up this fight for Xiaonan. Xiaonan is going to find success in this fight with the power in her hands and she is going to wear down Dern as the fight goes on. Xiaonan might not get the finish, but she will secure the victory. Back Xiaonan on the money line. 

Shane’s Pick Yan Xiaonan ML +195

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The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a PickDawgz site consensus.

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